Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- Decrease of retail sales in August does not justify a change in the monetary policy trajectory of the Brazil Central Bank, said Camila Abdelmalack, an economist at CM Capital Markets, in a telephone interview.

• "Fall in August came after four consecutive highs"
• "I do not believe that they will intensify the cut because of this data"
• Outlook shows a slow recovery of the economic activity
• "Maybe the Selic could go below 7%, but more because of inflation"
• NOTE: Brazil August Retail Sales -0.5% M/m; Est. +0.1%

To contact the translator on this story: Daniela Milanese in Sao Paulo at dmilanese@bloomberg.net Reporter on the original story: Ana Carolina Siedschlag in São Paulo at asiedschlag@bloomberg.net Editors responsible for the original story: Daniela Milanese at dmilanese@bloomberg.net Maria Luiza Rabello

(Bloomberg) -- Santander revised forecasts for the Selic rate to 7.0% from 7.5% for the end of 2017 and to 6.75% from 7.5% for the end of 2018, according to a report signed by Mauricio Molan. 

• “These will be the lowest levels ever recorded for the Selic since its March 1999 inception”
  • “From a longer-term retrospective, this should result in the lowest interbank overnight rate in 60 years, according to our forecasts”
• Low and stable inflation suggests that it will be possible to maintain Selic rate close to forecast for quite some time, at least until mid-2019
• Molan higlights that is important to remain focused on rebalancing fiscal accounts, as fiscal adjustment is a necessary condition for Brazil to keep rates in single digits
  • “In our view, an expansionary fiscal policy was probably the main cause of a process that ended up in hyperinflation and abnormal interest rates in the second half of last century”
• Molan also raised Brazil’s GDP forecasts to 0.8% from 0.5% in 2017 and to 3.2% from 2.5% in 2018

To contact the reporter on this story: Leonardo Lara in Sao Paulo at llara1@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Daniela Milanese at dmilanese@bloomberg.net Giulia Camillo

(Bloomberg) -- Bund futures (RX1) technical levels in focus.

• Daily Trend Bias: Bullish
• Comment: Early session pressure (on Catalonia risk-premium unwind) expected to be short-lived; bulls seen charging higher toward 161.82-98 where profit-take interest is likely to reside; move below 160.59 required to reassert the downside
  • Resistance: 161.37 (pivot); 161.68; 161.82; 161.98
  • Support: 161.07-05; 161.01; 160.85-82; 160.59
• NOTE: Roll- adjusted by difference in GFUT
• NOTE: Sejul Gokal is a FICC technical strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice

To contact the reporter on this story: Sejul Gokal in London at sgokal1@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Ven Ram at vram1@bloomberg.net Anil Varma

(Bloomberg) -- Here’s a roundup of Indian co. debt-rating changes.

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UPGRADES

• Dalmia Bharat Sugar
  • Term loans raised to AA- from A+ at ICRA
  • Cites improved near-term outlook for its core sugar business
• Khandke Wind Energy
  • Term loans raised to A from A- at ICRA
  • Cites reduction in interest rate for project debt resulting in an improvement in debt coverage metrics over loan tenure
• I A Hydro Energy
  • Term loan raised to BB from BB- at Brickwork
  • Cites successfully achieving commercial operation date and secured long-term power purchase agreement with Chhattisgarh State Power Distribution Co.
• Viraj Spinners
  • Long-term bank facilities raised to BB- from B at Crisil
  • Cites growth in revenue, stable operating margin

DOWNGRADES

• Pipefield India
  • LT bank facilities cut to B from B+ at Crisil
  • Cites weaker-than-expected operating performance due to nascent stage of operations
• Safal Construction
  • Term loan cut to BBB- from BBB at Brickwork
  • Cites group’s track record of real estate projects successfully executed
• Saha Infratech
  • NCD cut to D from BB at Care
  • Cites default in debt servicing of interest payments