Halister News

Economic Release Details: {NHSPSTOT Index ECOD} --SCOTT LANMAN

Economic Release Details: {INJCJC Index ECOD} --BRENDAN MURRAY

(Bloomberg) -- Housing starts seen rising 9% in December to 1.188m annual rate (forecast range 1.090m to 1.310m); starts pace rose 27.4% in October, fell 18.7% in November.

• “Extreme volatility in starts, particularly in the multifamily sector, has lately made it difficult to assess the segment’s progress”: Bloomberg Intelligence
• Initial jobless claims seen at 252k in week ended Jan. 14 vs 247k prior week (forecast range 225k to 300k); counts number of people making first-time claims for unemployment benefits
• Also today, Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook seen at 15.3 in January vs revised 19.7 in December (forecast range 10 to 23); gauge of manufacturing sentiment in Eastern Pennsylvania, Southern New Jersey, Delaware

--GELU SULUGIUC

See {NSN OK1236BE5TS0 } for the Government Web Content - Europe ex UK press release.

--GELU SULUGIUC

See {NSN OK1236BE5TS0 } for the Government Web Content - Europe ex UK press release.

(Bloomberg) -- Bund futures may accelerate downside momentum after yesterday’s sharp drop validated the early week topping candle against 100/200-DMAs, Bloomberg technical analyst Sejul Gokal writes.

• See chart here; contract now -66 ticks to 162.76
• Tuesday’s bearish ‘shooting star’ candlestick against key averages (today at 164.03-164.12) and Sept. downtrend, received added confirmation from yesterday’s sharp down-move
  • Resistance at 163.42, 163.82
  • Support at 162.47-43, 161.83 and 161.10
• 9-day RSI breaks November uptrend
• MACD drifting toward zero line
• While near-term bias is lower, the clearance of 162.47 swing low (Jan. 9) would heighten the negative risks and firmly reassert the broader downtrend
• Treasuries sold off sharply yesterday, led by the front end after Yellen hinted at consensus for “a few” rate hikes this year: MORE
• NOTE: Jan. 3, German 10Y Bund Yield Initiating New Leg Up Against Key Support

• NOTE: Sejul Gokal is a technical strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice

(Bloomberg) -- Expect the EGB index duration to extend by 0.10y at the end of January, higher than the overall 5-year median change and above the average January change over the last four years, Citi strategists including Aman Bansal write in a client note.

• In terms of weighted-duration changes, the French index is projected to extend the most, driven by heavy issuance in the long-end (including 20y, 30y, 50y supply)
• Month-end changes should be most supportive for France, followed by Italy
• Among individual countries in the indexes, Austria should extend the most, driven by EU12.2b of bonds dropping out of the index
• EGB Index is expected to extend the most at end of January, followed by the Treasury index at 0.06 years; gilt index is projected to extend by 0.04 years
  • Very significant for EGBI portfolio managers as they attempt to keep it unchanged through month-end re- balancing: Citi
• NOTE: Weighted duration of a country is calculated as (market value of country) x (effective duration) / (market value of EGBI)