Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- Net change in employment seen at -2.5k in Dec. vs +10.7k in Nov. (forecast range -47k to +25k); measures number of employed people as tracked by household labor force survey.

• Nov. payroll gain marked fourth consecutive monthly increase
• Canada’s unemployment rate seen at 6.9% in Dec. vs 6.8% in Nov. (forecast range 6.8% to 7%); tracks number of unemployed persons as percentage of labor force
  • Canada’s merchandise trade deficit seen at -C$1.6b in Nov. vs -C$1.13b in Oct. (forecast range -C$1.4b to - C$2.5b)

(Bloomberg) -- Non-farm payrolls seen at +175k in Dec. vs +178k in Nov. (forecast range +125k to +221k); measures number of employees on payrolls.

• Unemployment rate seen at 4.7% in Dec. vs 4.6% in Nov. (forecast range 4.5% to 4.8%)
• Average hourly earnings est. +0.3% m/m in Dec. vs -0.1% in Nov. (forecast range +0.2% to +0.5%)
  • “There are three main focal points in the December jobs report: the potential for a hiring pickup, the durability of the drop in unemployment and clarity regarding wage pressures”: Bloomberg Intelligence
• International trade balance in goods and services seen at - $45.5b in Nov. vs -$42.6b in Oct. (forecast range -$39b to - $46.1b)

(Bloomberg) -- Supreme Court upheld constitutionality of a law allowing Anti-Money Laundering Council to file with Appeals Court an ex-parte application to examine certain bank deposits and investment, according to copy of decision released Friday.

• Decision throws out petition by a law firm which sought to nullify section 11 of Anti-Money Laundering Act
• Court says provision doesn’t violate substantive due process as no seizure of property is involved in that stage
• Ex-parte inquiry shall be upon probable cause that investment or deposits are related to unlawful activity

(Bloomberg) -- Bund/UST 10Y spread has narrowed for a fourth consecutive day and momentum favors a move toward 205bps Fibonacci cluster, with potential overshoot level at 203bps (55-DMA), Bloomberg technical analyst Sejul Gokal writes.

• See chart here; spread at 210bps
• 205bps is the double-Fibonacci defense zone of widening phases from Nov. 9 high and Dec. 8 high
• Momentum indicators have room to unwind further which encourages more corrective narrowing toward next resistances
  • MACD bottoms out and fast line has room to gravitate toward zero mark, as it recovers from deep negative readings (-10)
• Since Trump’s election win, UST/Bund and EUR/USD exhibit an r-squared of +0.90 and a correlation of +0.95 suggesting both assets correlate very well and that movements in EUR/USD can be strongly explained by yield-differentials

• NOTE: Sejul Gokal is a technical strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice

--JOHN LIU