Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- Well-behaved inflation and Brazil Central Bank’s recent communications indicate that there’s space to reduce Selic rate to 6.5%, Itau says in report signed by chief economist Mario Mesquita.

• CPI estimate for 2018 cut to 3.8% from 4% due to "lower inertia of past inflation, anchored expectations and the remaining effect of the output gap still in negative territory"
  • 2017 CPI estimate cut to 3% from 3.2%
• Bank says that there’s still room for a decline in BCB’s 4.3% inflation estimate for 2018, reinforcing the need for some additional monetary stimulus
  • Selic is expected to reach 6.5% in 2018 with cuts of 75bps in Oct., 50bps in Dec. and a further 50bps in Feb. meeting
• Itau raised 2018 GDP projection to 3% from 2.7%, incorporating an additional Selic cut at the beginning of next year
• Also revised BRL estimate for 2017 from 3.35/USD to 3.25/USD
  • "International scenario puts pressure on emerging currencies at the end of the month", including BRL, but with "less intense depreciation due to the good perspective on the progress of the micro economic reform agenda and its consequences on capital flows"

To contact the translator on this story: Ana Carolina Siedschlag in São Paulo at asiedschlag@bloomberg.net To contact the translation editor responsible for this story: Danielle Chaves at djelmayer@bloomberg.net Reporter on the original story: Ana Carolina Siedschlag in São Paulo at asiedschlag@bloomberg.net Editors responsible for the original story: Daniela Milanese at dmilanese@bloomberg.net Marisa Castellani

(Bloomberg) -- Following are forecasts for today’s economic releases as compiled by Bloomberg News.

• Factory Orders 1% m/m; range 0.4% to 1.3% (53 estimates)
• Durables 1.7% m/m; range 1.5% to 1.9% (4 estimates)
• “Factory orders are likely to register a solid gain, based on the trajectory of the new order components in the five regional Fed manufacturing measures during August:" Bloomberg Intelligence
• In July, factory orders fell for the third time in four months

To contact the reporters on this story: Alex Tanzi in Washington at atanzi@bloomberg.net; Vincent Del Giudice in Denver at vdelgiudice@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Alex Tanzi at atanzi@bloomberg.net Kristy Scheuble

--ANDREW J. BARDEN

(Bloomberg) -- AmerisourceBergen indicated $83.05-$85 pre-market vs $82.74 after Baird analyst Eric Coldwell upgraded to outperform from neutral, PT $96 from $89, saying that the company "brings the cleanest story" among its peers over the near- and intermediate-term, and warrants a valuation premium.

• Based on recent comments and interactions, along with lowered Street expectations, Baird is "comfortable" upgrading ahead of initial FY18 guidance
• Says the cautious long-term sector stance still holds, but the Street is overemphasizing generic deflation impacts and is getting "overly negative" on drug distributors at the wrong time
• NOTE: Sept. 28, PBMs, Small Pharmacies Threatened Most by Amazon: Bernstein
  • Sept. 25, AmerisourceBergen’s Generic Pricing Risks Remain, Jefferies Says

To contact the reporter on this story: Tatiana Darie in New York at tdarie1@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Arie Shapira at ashapira3@bloomberg.net Steven Fromm

(Bloomberg) -- Following are forecasts for today’s economic releases as compiled by Bloomberg News.

• Trade Balance -42.7b; range -44.5b to -41.4b (55 estimates)
• "Trends in the balance of trade for merchandise goods should result in an improvement in the overall trade picture": Bloomberg Intelligence
• Preliminary data on August merchandise trade show the deficit narrowed to a 10-month low
• Initial Claims 265k; range 240k to 350k (42 estimates)
• Cont. Claims 1950k; range 1925k to 1960k (7 estimates)
• “Unemployment claims have been influenced by the hurricanes, which will likely distort data for another two to three weeks. Despite the volatility from the storms, claims have resided in a narrow 227k-298k range over the last 12 months. Outside of this distortion, the labor market is still on a tight path": Bloomberg Intelligence
• In the prior report, jobless claims rose by 12,000 to 272,000

To contact the reporters on this story: Alex Tanzi in Washington at atanzi@bloomberg.net; Vincent Del Giudice in Denver at vdelgiudice@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Alex Tanzi at atanzi@bloomberg.net Kristy Scheuble