Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- 80bp selloff since November driven by expectations of fiscal expansion and portfolio flows has pushed risk premium up to near its pre-2009 average, which isn’t warranted, Credit Agricole strategist Mohit Kumar says in note.

• Structural factors still inhibit inflation, and “uncertainty over policy delivery in 2017 remains high”
• Also, year-end flows usually are positive for duration

(Bloomberg) -- U.S. 10y Treasuries and spot gold have seen their inverse correlation hit the highest in five years, and have found major medium-term support at 2.64% and 1,124 respectively, Bloomberg technical analyst Sejul Gokal writes.

• See LIVE chart
• UST yield -3bps to 2.57% vs. 2.64% high seen yesterday
  • 2.64% resistance, represents the last Fibonacci defense of 2014-2016 rally in Treasuries
  • 2.62%-2.66% also represents a high-activity zone, according to price distribution bar analysis (see here)
  • Above here, resistance at 2.69%, July 2014 high
  • 100-DMA at 1.94% -- USTs bearish while yield above here
• Gold spot +0.6% to 1,135 vs. 1,123 low seen yesterday
  • Support at 1,124, which represents the last Fibonacci defense of 2015-2016 rally
  • Below here, support at 1,113-08, Jan. 8 high, 29 low
  • 100-week moving average at 1,206; gold bearish while below here

• Correlation analysis:
  • 30-day rolling correlation at -0.93, most negative since Sept. 2011
  • 1-year R-squared at +0.67 vs. +0.33 seen one year ago
  • 1-yr correlation at -0.82 vs. -0.57 seen one year ago

• NOTE: Sejul Gokal is an technical strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice.

(Bloomberg) -- Honeywell sees 2017 EPS $6.85-$7.10 vs est. $7.09.

• Sees 2017 organic sales growth 1%-3%
• Sees 2017 segment margin expansion 70-110bps
• Cites impact from high-return capacity expansions, continued seed planting in new product introductions, software and connected enterprises, and earnings from prior M&A
• Reaffirms 4Q EPS forecast ~$1.74 and 2016 earnings/sales views
• Investor call starts 9am 877-795-3635

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Economic Release Details: {RREFKANN Index ECOD} --SCOTT ROSE