HALISTER1: Move to Higher Yields Not Done; 10Y Yield 2.8%-3%: Credit Suisse

Move to Higher Yields Not Done; 10Y Yield 2.8%-3%: Credit Suisse

(Bloomberg) -- Move higher in yields isn’t done; “we expect a brief respite, followed by a resumption in the selloff in fixed income as the details of the Trump economic agenda become clearer,” Credit Suisse analysts led by Praveen Korapaty write in note on Tuesday.
  • UST 10Y should yield ~2.8% mid-2017, 3% by year-end 2017
    • This is base-case scenario that assumes there are no “severe” external shocks
  • In U.S., yield curve steepening has been restricted to front/intermediate sector, as pricing in of higher policy rates has outweighed term premia repricing at long end
  • Factors driving yields higher are mostly Trump; a “big constant” in Trump era is policy uncertainty
    • To extent that strong anti-globalization and populist forces push through anti-trade and anti-immigration agenda, Credit Suisse expects drag on growth that could offset any boost from fiscal expansion
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Praveen Korapaty (Credit Suisse Group AG)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER: Linde Confirms Receipt of Revised Merger Proposal From Praxair

Linde Confirms Receipt of Revised Merger Proposal From Praxair

(Bloomberg) -- Executive board of Linde reviewing revised proposal from Praxair concerning a potential merger of equals.
  • NOTE: Earlier, Praxair Said to Approach Linde About Resuming Deal Talks: DJ
Link to Statement:Link
Alert: HALISTER
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
LIN GR (Linde AG)
PX US (Praxair Inc)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: UST 10Y Yield Can Rise 125bp to Narrow Term Premia: CrossBorder

UST 10Y Yield Can Rise 125bp to Narrow Term Premia: CrossBorder

(Bloomberg) -- Real term premia 125bp too low, possibly signaling that UST 10Y yield can rise by same amount as to close gap over next 18 months, CrossBorder Capital writes in note.
  • Inflation impact on bond yields are usually “slow-moving, persistent effects,” not the reason for current selloff
  • Instead, liquidity and volatility factors are more explanatory; flight-to-safety move into Western government bonds now reversing as China liquidity rising on stabilizing economy
    • PBOC stimulus “matters far, far more” than Trump policies for world commodity prices and bond yields
  • “Real concern” is Chinese wholesale prices breaking out of 4-year deflationary period, possibly explaining rising net inflows back into China where profit expectations are higher
  • Yield curve will inevitably steepen more as central banks take slow and measured pace to hike rates
  • Related story: Easy PBOC Stance, Not Trump, Fueling Bond Selloff: CrossBorder
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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HALISTER1: Finning International Inc.- DBRS Rating Report

Finning International Inc.- DBRS Rating Report

Alert: HALISTER1
Source: DBR (Dominion Bond Rating Service)

Tickers
FTT CN (Finning International Inc)

People
Kam Hon (DBRS Ltd)

Topics
Fixed Income Research
Credit Analysis Research
Credit Research
Investment Research
Issuer Focused Research

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER: Sloan Played Role in Tolstedt’s Departure Before Scandal Erupted

Sloan Played Role in Tolstedt’s Departure Before Scandal Erupted

Alert: HALISTER
Source: BN (Bloomberg News)

Tickers
WFC US (Wells Fargo & Co)

People
Carrie Tolstedt (Wells Fargo & Co)
John Stumpf (Wells Fargo & Co)
Timothy Sloan (Wells Fargo & Co)

Topics
Who's News - People
Financial Firm Departures

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UUID: 7947283