Move to Higher Yields Not Done; 10Y Yield 2.8%-3%: Credit Suisse
(Bloomberg) -- Move higher in yields isn’t done; “we expect a brief respite, followed by a resumption in the selloff in fixed income as the details of the Trump economic agenda become clearer,” Credit Suisse analysts led by Praveen Korapaty write in note on Tuesday.
- UST 10Y should yield ~2.8% mid-2017, 3% by year-end 2017
- This is base-case scenario that assumes there are no “severe” external shocks
- In U.S., yield curve steepening has been restricted to front/intermediate sector, as pricing in of higher policy rates has outweighed term premia repricing at long end
- Factors driving yields higher are mostly Trump; a “big constant” in Trump era is policy uncertainty
- To extent that strong anti-globalization and populist forces push through anti-trade and anti-immigration agenda, Credit Suisse expects drag on growth that could offset any boost from fiscal expansion
Alert:
HALISTER1Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)
People Praveen Korapaty (Credit Suisse Group AG)
To de-activate this alert, click
hereUUID: 7947283