HALISTER1: Raiffeisen Sees RUB Underperforming Oil on Local FX Shortage

Raiffeisen Sees RUB Underperforming Oil on Local FX Shortage

(Bloomberg) -- Growth in Brent price in RUB from 2,986 at start of week to current 3,149 is one of consequences of deepening FX shortage in Russian banking system, Raiffeisenbank analysts say in research note.
  • Spread between o/n MosPrime rate and o/n NDF/FX swap widened to 170bps from 100bps at the beginning of November
  • Local demand for FX rising due to global increase in USD yields, shrinking difference between RUB and USD yields
    • Narrower current account surplus also depleting FX
    • Banks have already exhausted most of their liquid FX assets to compensate for corporate capital outflow
  • Raiffeisen sees Brent in RUB rising to 3,300 with FX liquidity exacerbated by external debt redemptions in December
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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HALISTER1: EU CREDIT DAILY: Rates Pressure; Remy Beats, Thyssenkrupp Stable

EU CREDIT DAILY: Rates Pressure; Remy Beats, Thyssenkrupp Stable

(Bloomberg) -- Happy Thanksgiving! Rates market selloff, putting renewed pressure on corporate bond valuations, will likely feature in upcoming discussions about 2017 asset allocations. Current rising yields likely to limit near-term credit spread tightening potential; sideways movement may be the best investors can now hope for, Bloomberg strategist Simon Ballard writes.
  • Rates volatility has persisted in Asia overnight with synthetic credit indexes weaker again; suggests net wider bias persisting in EUR credit market
    • Rates weakness has erased 199bps off IG credit ytd total return since Oct 1; from 6.00% (Oct 1) to 4.01% as of close yesterday
  • Credit market volume expected to be modest Thursday with U.S. market closed; macro focus on German Nov Ifo business confidence, German and Spanish final 3Q GDP
  • Bloomberg Barclays Eur-Agg Corporate index closed Wednesday at 124bps (flat); Bloomberg Barclays Eur HY index closed at 423bps (-2bps)
  • CDX IG closed Wednesday -0.5bps at 74.22; iTraxx Asia Ex Japan IG is currently +0.6bps at 126.91 and iTraxx Australia quoted +1.0bps at 110.08
NEWS
  • Corporate News
  • Severn Trent 1H Turnover, Profit Up; Sees Lower Interest Charge
  • Thyssenkrupp to Keep Dividend Stable as Profit Matches Estimates
  • Melisron 3Q Profit Rises 16% as Rental Income Increases
  • CVS Group Says Underlying Profitability Ahead of Expectations
  • Pets at Home Says FY Profit Outlook In Line With Market Ests.
  • Euromoney FY Rev. Beats Ests.; Sees Return to Growth in 2018
  • Countrywide Sees FY Ebitda Around Lower End of Market Estimates
  • Marston’s FY Underlying Pretax In Line, Encouraging Start to FY
  • Mothercare 1H Adj. Pretax Falls, 2H to Date In Line With Plans
  • Pierre & Vacances FY Net Loss Narrows, Helped by Tourism Unit
  • Remy Cointreau 1H Current Operating Profit Beats Estimates
  • Gatwick Airport 6-MO Rev Up 8.1% to GBP445.2m
  • Financial News
  • Maybank Slashes Loan Growth, Return Targets After Earnings Drop
  • PayPoint 1H Revenue Drops 1.1%, Says Trading In Line
  • Commercial Bank of Africa 9-Month Net KES3.91b vs KES2.56b
  • Sabadell’s TSB in Talks to Acquire U.K. Mortgages: Expansion
  • Rating News
  • Moody’s Raises Transpower NZ Ratings Outlook to Positive
  • S&PGR Affirms Rtgs On Six Thai Banks; Otlks Stable
  • Transurban Rtgs Unaffected By Logan Project: S&PGR
  • Fitch: Australia Regional Banks’ Risk Appetite to Sway Ratings
  • Fitch: China Power Companies Face Further Margin Erosion in 2017
  • Other News
  • Cautious Fed Sees Labor Market Strong Enough for December Hike
  • S&P Says Negative Momentum in Credit Quality Likely to Continue
  • Deutsche Asset Management Positive on Asian Credit
ANALYST VIEWS
  • It is the rising yields environment which is preoccupying corporate bond investors. We’re not piling in on the back of the better valuations, despite the demand for primary risk: creditmarketdaily.com
NEW ISSUES
  • 4finance EU50m 11.25% 5/2021 Tap at 100
  • ABN Amro Bank GBP300m 2Y FRN 3mL +50
  • Adecco EU500m 8Y MS +65
  • ASML EU750m 5/2027 MS +95
  • CAFFIL EU500m 15Y Covered MS +17
  • China Eximbank EU1.15b 3Y MS +35, EU850m 5Y MS +60
  • Cramo EU150m 2/2022 MS +225
  • UBS Group Funding (Jersey) EU1.25b 8NC7 MS +108
  • European IG credit pipeline here and HY credit pipeline here
  • NOTE: Simon Ballard is a credit strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice.
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
TKA GR (thyssenkrupp AG)

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