HALISTER1: U.K. October Retail Sales Ex-Fuel Due in 5 Mins; Est. M/m 0.4%

U.K. October Retail Sales Ex-Fuel Due in 5 Mins; Est. M/m 0.4%

(Bloomberg) -- U.K. October retail sales ex-auto fuel m/m est. 0.4% vs previous 0.0%.
  • October retail sales ex-auto fuel y/y est. 5.4% vs previous 4.0%
  • October retail sales including auto fuel m/m est. 0.5% vs previous 0.0%
  • October retail sales including auto fuel m/m est. 5.3% vs previous 4.1%
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: AUCTION PREVIEW: 10y Gilt Breakevens Look Rich, Say Analysts

AUCTION PREVIEW: 10y Gilt Breakevens Look Rich, Say Analysts

(Bloomberg) -- U.K. to sell I/L 0.125% 03/2026 gilt for GBP1.1b at 11:30am CET, equivalent to ~13k gilt futures.
  • RBC (Vatsala Datta)
    • Outright real yields ~18bps lower since last sale, but have surged ~45bps from lows seen in early October in the recent sell-off
    • 5s10s real yield curve has steepened quite aggressively, more than that implied by the outright market sell-off
    • Bond looks cheap vs immediate neighbors, but has given up some of that cheapness in the recent days
    • Breakeven valuations look stretched; however, still expect the auction to be well received; anticipate demand on the back of surge in outright yields and steepening in the curve
  • Santander (Adam Dent)
    • Bond is likely to remain on-the-run with quarterly sales throughout 2017; supply dynamics should be supportive, especially once the syndication in week of Nov. 28 has passed
    • While spot inflation disappointed last month, expected to accelerate rapidly over coming months; expect linkers to continue to outperform nominals
    • 10y has not led the linker sell-off as much as nominals, but they are attractive on the curve; bond is pretty neutral on RV
  • RBS (Oriane Parmentier)
    • Surprisingly low inflation figures, small bounce in GBP, has been negative for breakevens this week, though still remain close to top of post-crisis range
    • Believe U.K. breakevens have “significant overshot” levels justified by near term inflationary shock, this supply may be enough to bring this area “down to earth”
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Vatsala Datta (RBC Europe Ltd)
Adam Dent (Abbey Natl Treasury Services)
Oriane Parmentier (Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: EU CREDIT DAILY: Uncertainty Persists; Yellen Testimony in Focus

EU CREDIT DAILY: Uncertainty Persists; Yellen Testimony in Focus

(Bloomberg) -- EUR credit markets opening with a widening bias in wake of net weakness seen in Asia and lower oil prices; macro and political uncertainties continue to test confidence in risk assets even as the rates selloff abates, Bloomberg strategist Simon Ballard writes.
  • More clarity on U.S. rates outlook, particularly the prospect of a December rate rise, could come from Fed Chair Yellen’s testimony Thursday to House Joint Economic Committee
    • Fed funds futures market currently a 94% for hike next month
  • Bloomberg Barclays Eur-Agg Corporate index closed Wednesday at 118bps (+2bps); Bloomberg Barclays Eur HY index closed at 411bps (+4bps)
  • CDX IG closed Wednesday -0.2bps at 75.29; iTraxx Asia Ex Japan IG is currently +4.3bps at 127.57 and iTraxx Australia quoted +0.6bps at 110.67
NEWS
  • Corporate News
  • Ahold Third-Quarter Profit Misses Estimates After Merger
  • Royal Mail 1H Adj Operating Profit Falls, Cost Cut Target Rises
  • CRH Maintains FY Ebitda Guidance of In Excess of EU3b
  • Henkel Sets 2020 Financial Goals; 2%-4% Avg Organic Sales Growth
  • VW Loses More European Market Share as Scandal Effect Lingers
  • Shanks Group Sees FY Reported Results Benefiting From Weak GBP
  • Financial News
  • Dexia Reports 3Q Net of EU309m; CET1 Ratio Climbs to 17.2%
  • Investec 1H NII Rises, 3rd Party AUM Increases 17%
  • Julius Baer 10-Month AUM Rise 9% YTD to Record CHF327b
  • Bank Hapoalim Third-Quarter Profit Drops 13% on DOJ Provision
  • NN Group Says Continues to Deliver On Its Targets in 3Q Update
  • Mediobanca Buys Esperia Amid Plan to Expand Wealth Management
  • Rating News
  • Fitch Rates CBA’s AUD2.3bn Covered Bonds ’AAA’; Outlook Stable
  • S&PGR Places Financiera Finca Ratings On Watch Developing
  • Other News
  • BOJ Fires Warning at Bond Market With Unlimited Buying Plan
  • BlackRock, Pimco Issue Inflation Warnings Ahead of TIPS Auction
  • Turkey Central Bank Changes Reserve Rules to Boost FX Liquidity
  • China Steel Exports to Remain at ~100m Tons in 2017: Fitch
ANALYST VIEWS
  • We are at about the most uncertain period for market direction than at any stage this year (and) it does seem like we are going to trade with a little volatility for the next few months: creditmarketdaily.com
  • Stick to mantra of “no experiments in Q4”, and enter the last weeks of the year holding defensive stance built around an overweight of CSPP-buying candidates. Consistent with long-held preference for credit risk over duration, stick to the outer rim in terms of ratings: Commerzbank
NEW ISSUES
  • Akelius Residential EU600m 1/2022 MS +145
  • APRR EU500m 1/2027 MS +67, EU500m 1/2031 MS +102
  • Caja Rural De Navarra EU500m 7Y Covered MS +27
  • Commerzbank EU500m 2/2023 Covered MS -12
  • Eastman Chemical EU200m 1.5% 2023 Tap, EU500m 10Y
  • ING Groep $1b PerpNC5.5 AT1 6.875% Coupon
  • Land NRW $750m 2Y FRN 3mL +17
  • Pension Insurance Corp GBP250m 10Y Tier 2 8% Coupon
  • European IG credit pipeline here and HY credit pipeline here
  • NOTE: Simon Ballard is a credit strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice.
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: ECB’s Mersch Due to Speak in Frankfurt in 5 Minutes

ECB’s Mersch Due to Speak in Frankfurt in 5 Minutes

(Bloomberg) -- Frankfurt: ECB Executive Board member Yves Mersch speaks at a forum during Euro Finance Week.
  • Text will be made available on the ECB website
  • See ECB weekly schedule
  • NOTE: Mersch said on Nov. 10 that Brexit raises uncertainty on central counterparties
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
2539Z GR (European Central Bank)

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UUID: 7947283

(2) *EUROPEAN OCTOBER CAR SALES FALL 0.3% TO 1.14 MILLION VEHICLES

*EUROPEAN OCTOBER CAR SALES FALL 0.3% TO 1.14 MILLION VEHICLES

Alerts: HALISTER, HALISTER1
Source: BN (Bloomberg News)

Tickers
F US (Ford Motor Co)
RNO FP (Renault SA)
BMW GR (Bayerische Motoren Werke AG)
DAI GR (Daimler AG)
FCAU US (Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV)

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UUID: 7947283