Halister News

--DEREK WALLBANK

--ANGELA CULLEN

--BRAD SKILLMAN

--EDWARD DUFNER

(Bloomberg) -- Under Republican sweep, expect USD to strengthen vs EM and weaken against other major peers amid potential trade wars, potential contractionary policies, Barclays economist Michael Gapen says in phone interview.

• Market reaction not overdone, question will be how long risk-off moves last
• “It’s up to the winner to soothe markets”
  • If Trump signals priority for fiscal expansion, markets can reverse quickly; there is a set of Trump policies -- restricting trade and capital flows, deporting certain immigrants, repealing ACA -- that are contractionary
  • Risks would depend on what policies Trump prioritizes and when and how all fits together

(Bloomberg) -- As long as USD doesn’t rise too far, Donald Trump becoming president won’t stop a Fed rate increase as a Republican sweep could be inflationary, says Chris Dickman, Sydney-based principal at Altius Asset Management.

• “The certainty of one political party able to make executive decisions is quite unique in this world,” says Dickman
• Odds of December rate hike as measured by OIS fall to 49%
• FOMC decision due on Dec. 14

--BRAD SKILLMAN

--EDWARD DUFNER