Halister News

--PAUL GORDON

(Bloomberg) -- MAS will likely tweak forward guidance either by changing the wording or removing "extended period" altogether, HSBC analysts including Joseph Incalcaterra write in report Friday.

• The “worst has passed for Singapore,” but MAS is in no rush, the analysts write, adding that they forecast a return to a gradually positive slope in 1H 2018
  • Cyclical data have improved, labor market troughed and signs of an incipient recovery in the property market are starting to be seen
  • HSBC expects no change to SGD NEER policy
  • Modifications to, or even removal of, forward guidance should lead to a modest gain in SGD NEER, potentially to a new YTD high, i.e. beyond 1.3% above midpoint of estimated policy band, provided USD strength abates
  • SGD will outperform other low-yielding Asian FX, notably the THB and TWD, the analysts write
• Interest rates in Singapore are likely to fall if the MAS surprises hawkishly
  • HSBC favours staying received SGD- USD5yr IRS spread ahead of the MAS meeting
• NOTE: Credit Suisse also expects Singapore’s central bank to remove its forward guidance of an extended period of neutral policy stance

To contact the reporter on this story: Masaki Kondo in Singapore at mkondo3@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Tan Hwee Ann at hatan@bloomberg.net Shikhar Balwani

(Bloomberg) -- Here’s a roundup of Indian co. debt-rating changes.

• To get this story sent to your inbox real-time, run NI INRATINGS, click on Display & Edit, then Set Alert Delivery

UPGRADES

• Home Credit India Finance
  • Long-term bank facilities raised to BBB+(SO) from BBB(SO) at Care, NCD also upgraded to BBB from BB+
  • Cites comfortable capitalization levels due to consistent equity infusion by promoters
• Mihit Solar Power
  • LT bank facilities raised to A-(SO) from BBB+(SO) at Care
  • Cites improved generation levels in all three co-obligors in last 6-8 months
• Madras Engineering
  • LT bank facilities raised to A- from BBB+ at Crisil
  • Cites increasing business with existing customers in domestic heavy commercial vehicles segment
• Mecaplast India
  • LT bank facilities raised to BBB+ from BBB at Crisil
  • Cites steady operating performance
• Muktar Infrastructure
  • LT bank facilities raised to B- from D at Crisil
  • Cites timely servicing of term debt
• NR Agarwal Industries
  • Term loan raised to BBB from BB+ at India Ratings
  • Cites revenue growth
• Rai Bahadur Narain Singh Sugar Mills
  • LT bank facilities raised to BB+ from BB at Care
  • Cites improved profitability from sugar division
• Suam Overseas
  • LT bank facilities raised to BBB+ from BBB at Crisil
  • Cites ramp-up in scale of operations

DOWNGRADES

• Laxmi Dia Jewel
  • LT bank facilities cut to BB+ from BBB- at Crisil
  • Cites significant decline in revenue
• SledgeHammer Oil
  • LT bank facilities cut to BBB from BBB+ at Crisil
  • Cites decline in operating income

--DAN REICHL

(Bloomberg) -- Macau’s gross gaming revenue this month is expected to rise for the 14th consecutive month. The regulator plans to report Sept. gross gaming revenue data in early October, according to Gaming Inspection & Coordination Bureau website. ESTIMATES

• Sept. gross gaming revenue is estimated to rise a median 14% on year, according to 9 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg
  • Estimate range +11% to +17%
• NOTE: Sept. 1, Macau Aug. Casino Rev. Rises 20.4% Y/y; Est. 18.5% Rise

WHAT TO WATCH

• Bernstein (Vitaly Umansky): Gross gaming revenue through Sept. 24 will be ~17b patacas, or on average 708m patacas per day, based on channel checks
  • Monthly GGR is estimated between 21b patacas and 21.2b patacas, implying y/y growth of 14% to 15%
• Daiwa (Jamie Soo): Estimate of 2017 VIP GGR growth is raised to 19% from 5%, with most of the incremental revenue allocated to Wynn, Melco
  • The 2 operators have outperformed on credit growth, but history suggests such a credit-driven rally will be unsustainable, with a rise in bad debts to ensue
  • Mass-focused Sands China remains top pick
• Morgan Stanley (Praveen K Choudhary): VIP business remains positive after Aug. typhoon and booking for Golden Week holiday is strong
  • 3Q17 GGR growth tracking at ~6% q/q
  • 4Q17 GGR growth may slow to 16% y/y vs 21% in 3Q
• Goldman Sachs (Simon Cheung): Macau and the Philippines remain well-positioned to capture Asians’ rising leisure and gaming spending in the long run

BLOOMBERG DATA

• YTD performance: Wynn Macau +71%, Melco Resorts +48%, Galaxy Entertainment +61%, SJM Holdings +18%, Sands China +20%, MGM China 14%

RELATED STORIES

• Sept. 29, Golden Outlook for Macau Holiday Week as Junkets, Hotels Booked
• Sept. 28, Credit to Big Macau Gamblers Seen Posing Risks as Revenue Rises
• Sept. 27, Macau Asks Banks to Stop Virtual Currency Related Services
• Sept. 22, China Names New Heads of Govt Liaison Office in H.K., Macau

To contact the reporters on this story: Fox Hu in Hong Kong at fhu7@bloomberg.net; Daniela Wei in Hong Kong at jwei74@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Divya Balji at dbalji1@bloomberg.net Jeff Sutherland

Economic Release Details: {JNIPMOM Index ECOD} --GEAROID REIDY

Economic Release Details: {JNCPIXFF Index ECOD} --JUNKO HAYASHI