HALISTER1: Sustainable Finance: Exxon Slump Amplifies In or Out Debate

Sustainable Finance: Exxon Slump Amplifies In or Out Debate

Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BBF (Bloomberg Brief Newsletters)

Tickers
XOM US (Exxon Mobil Corp)

People
Alan Jeffers (Exxon Mobil Corp)
Andrew Lee (UBS Asset Management Japan Ltd)
Angus Lee (Hong Kong Jockey Club)
Bruce Kahn (Sustainable Insight Capital Management LLC)
Jean Rogers (Sustainability Accounting Standards Board)

Topics
Subordinated Debt

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: Canadian University Peer Comparison Table - November 2016

Canadian University Peer Comparison Table - November 2016

Alert: HALISTER1
Source: DBR (Dominion Bond Rating Service)

Tickers
3717Z CN (Brock University)
340973Z US (Concordia University/Canada)
523812Z CN (McMaster University)
85025MF US (Ottawa University)
2751172Z CN (Queen's University)

People
Brenda Lum (DBRS Ltd)
Masaaki Iwamoto (Nikko Asset Management Co Ltd)
Megumi Todori (North Pacific Bank Ltd)
Paul Seet (Jump Trading LLC)

Topics
Fixed Income Research
Prov., Reg. Credit Research
Credit Analysis Research
Credit Research
Investment Research

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: Turkey Borrowing Drive Could Push Yields Higher: Garanti Yatirim

Turkey Borrowing Drive Could Push Yields Higher: Garanti Yatirim

(Bloomberg) -- Investors should take advantage of any drop in yields to reduce portfolio risk, Melis Ozturk and Tufan Comert, analysts at Istanbul-based broker, write in e-mailed report.
  • Say Turkish Treasury plans to increase its roll-over ratio to 100% in 2017, the highest level since 2009, and this increased supply will pressure yields
    • “Increasing the amount of debt might push yields higher in the bond market. This could also pressure the corporate bond market in Turkey”
  • Expect foreign investors will reduce their positions gradually toward end-2016, also “pushing yields higher”
  • See corporate borrowing costs increasing in coming period, don’t expect corporate issuance to increase in 2017
  • NOTE: Turkey Treasury Plans to Borrow $6b From Global Markets in 2017 NSN OFX0YX6JIJW8
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Tufan Comert (Turkiye Garanti Bankasi AS)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: U.S. ECO PREVIEW: ISM Non-Mfg, Factory Orders Due in 5 Minutes

U.S. ECO PREVIEW: ISM Non-Mfg, Factory Orders Due in 5 Minutes

(Bloomberg) -- ISM non-manufacturing index seen at 56 in Oct. vs 57.1 in Sept. (forecast range 53.5 to 57.4); composite index tracks business activity, orders, employment, deliveries; above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction.
  • Factory orders seen rising 0.2% in Sept., same as Aug. (forecast range -0.6% to +1%); includes durable and non- durable goods
  • Preliminary data issued Oct. 27 showed Aug. durable goods orders declined 0.1%
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: BOE CHECKLIST: What Carney Said on Policy Outlook, Inflation (1)

BOE CHECKLIST: What Carney Said on Policy Outlook, Inflation (1)

(Bloomberg) -- (Updates with comments from the BOE press conference) U.K. rate setters said that monetary policy could be eased further or tightened in response to changes in the economic outlook, as the BOE left policy on hold.
  • The key points from BOE statements follow; monetary policy summary here and Inflation Report here
DID BOE ADJUST RATES, QE?
  • The bank kept key rate at 0.25%, the gilt purchase program at GBP435b, and the corporate-bond plan at GBP10b
  • Analysts no longer expected any easing this month after stronger than forecast 3Q; Goldman pushed back its BOE rate cut call to Feb. from Nov. and HSBC no longer expects the bank to cut rates this month
HOW SPLIT WAS THE VOTE?
  • MPC voted 9-0 on all 3 decisions. Forbes, McCafferty oppose QE, but didn’t vote against it
  • Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect an 9-0 vote to leave rates unchanged
WHAT DID CARNEY SAY ABOUT FUTURE POLICY DIRECTION?
  • Bank says “monetary policy could respond, in either direction, to changes in the economic outlook as they unfolded”
  • Says previous guidance on likelihood of another rate cut has “expired”
  • Carney said BOE has a neutral bias going forward
  • BOE retains many options; could cut Bank Rate further, could do additional asset purchases, if that were appropriate; although adds not signaling it is appropriate
  • Deputy governor Minouche Shafik says plan is to continue current QE program fully
    • BOE said weekly QE auctions will be GBP1b for each maturity bucket
WHAT DID CARNEY SAY ABOUT BREXIT?
  • Far too soon to make judgments on Brexit; it hasn’t yet begun and there are a quite a range of outcomes
  • Says decision by judges that parliament must vote before starting Brexit is an example of the uncertainty that will characterize the process of leaving the EU
    • The judicial process isn’t inconsistent with the triggering of article 50 by the end of March
    • There are going to be a series of events which will feed back into uncertainty
  • EU deal biggest determinant of U.K. outlook; British economy’s supply could be affected by EU deal
  • Haven’t changed assumption about what kind of Brexit the U.K. will have; have taken a weighted average of various potential outcomes
AND WHAT ABOUT GROWTH?
  • BOE sees 4Q GDP growth at 0.4%, raises 2016 forecast to 2.2%
  • Raises 2017 est. to 1.4% vs 0.8%, cuts 2018 to 1.5% vs 1.8%
  • Near-term momentum is good, deceleration is likely in 2017
  • Growth is expected to be weaker in medium term vs August projections
WHAT DOES THE BANK SAY ABOUT STERLING?
  • Fall in sterling will have more significant implications for the path of inflation
  • Bank doesn’t target the exchange rate, it targets inflation; that doesn’t mean that policy makers are indifferent to the exchange rate
    • BOE cares about why it moves and the the combination of the exchange rate and other factors that are driving the economy and inflation
WHERE DOES THE BANK SEE INFLATION?
  • BOE raises inflation forecasts over entire forecast period
    • BOE raises 2017 CPI forecast to 2.7% from 2%, 2018 prediction to 2.7% from 2.4%
  • The balance of stronger near-term consumer demand, modest supply outlook and a lower sterling exchange rate implies a more challenging trade-off between returning inflation sustainably to target on the one hand, and supporting real activity on the other
WILL BOE LOOK THROUGH HIGHER INFLATION?
  • BOE says it has limited tolerance for above-target CPI
  • Carney says there is no one limit on how much inflation rate-setters will tolerate as it’s a product of what is causing the overshoot
  • Adds MPC monitoring closely inflation expectations as they have picked up notably
  • Carney says at press conference it’s appropriate to allow period of above-target CPI as trying to rectify overshoot could prove “excessively costly” to output and employment
  • Mark Carney had previously told a House of Lords Committee in London that there are limits to the MPC’s willingness to look through an overshoot of inflation
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Nemat Shafik (Bank of England)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: U.S. Structured Finance Newsletter - Loan Seasoning Benefits New Private Student Loan ABS

U.S. Structured Finance Newsletter - Loan Seasoning Benefits New Private Student Loan ABS

Alert: HALISTER1
Source: DBR (Dominion Bond Rating Service)

People
Charles Weilamann (DBRS Inc)
Chris Donofrio (Dbrs Inc)
Chris O'Connell (DBRS Inc)
Christopher D'Onofrio (DBRS Inc)
Claire Mezzanotte (DBRS Inc)

Topics
Fixed Income Research
Industry & Sector Research
Credit Analysis Research
Credit Research
Investment Research

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UUID: 7947283