HALISTER1: INSIDE JAPAN: Yen May Gain on U.S. Election Uncertainty: Ueda

INSIDE JAPAN: Yen May Gain on U.S. Election Uncertainty: Ueda

(Bloomberg) -- USD/JPY extends decline following 0.5% drop on Friday as FBI opens new Clinton probe; the pair still set for monthly gain of around 3.2%, biggest advance since May.
  • BOJ starts two-day meeting today; its decision and Governor Kuroda’s press conference are due tomorrow; click here for latest BOJ watchers’ call
  • USD/JPY may fall on position adjustment after last week’s rally, says Naoto Ono, Tokyo-based analyst at Ueda Harlow in note today
    • Conversion line on ichimoku chart at 104.35 and psychological support at 104.00 may be key support on the pair
    • It could be hard for risk sentiment to develop as uncertainty surrounding U.S. presidential election increases on new Clinton probe
  • USD/JPY falls 0.1% to 104.63 after touching 104.27 in early trading session, staying above pivot S1 at 104.30; the pair touched 105.53, highest since July 29 on Friday
  • FX options expiring today include strike at 104.00 for $2.53b: DTCC
  • Data due today include industrial production and retail sales for Sept.
  • Future of 10-year govt bond rose 0.01 to 151.65 in overnight session
  • Implied volatility of JGB futures rose to 1.80 on Friday
  • Cabinet approval rating falls 1.8ppts to 53.9%, Kyodo says; Nikkei says cabinet approval rating rises 2ppts to 60%
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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Naoto Ono (Ueda Harlow Ltd)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: RBA to Stay the Course, Avoid Stoking Aussie Gains: Analysis

RBA to Stay the Course, Avoid Stoking Aussie Gains: Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- The RBA may look through last week’s strong CPI and leave policy on hold Tuesday while maintaining its implicit easing bias to avoid driving the Aussie higher, writes Bloomberg strategist Michael G. Wilson.
  • Any departure from that bias in RBA’s statement, inferred or otherwise, could see AUD/USD test the 0.7734 October high
  • Australia’s trade-weighted index, used by RBA as a gauge of competitiveness, has climbed even faster than the currency in recent weeks; TWI is near the highest since mid-2015
  • The gain has come with an advance by commodities since the last RBA meeting Oct. 4; that bodes well for Australia’s economic prospects:
    • Iron ore delivered to Qingdao has risen 15% to $63.96/MT
    • Newcastle coal futures up 28% to $104/MT, a record for the November 2016 contract
  • Net-long positioning on Aussie by leveraged funds was at 42,873 contracts as of Oct. 25, CFTC data shows; while elevated, that’s well below April’s high of 58,808 and may allow for further bullish bets
  • RBA will leave its benchmark rate unchanged on Tuesday, according to 21 of 27 economists surveyed by Bloomberg; the remainder expect a 25bp cut; announcement due at 2:30pm Sydney time
  • AUD/USD now down 0.1% to 0.7591
  • NOTE: Michael G. Wilson is an FX strategist who writes for First Word. The observations he makes are his own.
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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HALISTER1: URGENT: El Salvador Pólice Arrest Ex-President Tony Saca

URGENT: El Salvador Pólice Arrest Ex-President Tony Saca

Alert: HALISTER1
Source: APW (Associated Press)

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Elias Saca Gonzalez (Republic of El Salvador)
Francisco Flores Perez (Republic of El Salvador)
Mauricio Funes (Republic of El Salvador)

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UUID: 7947283