HALISTER1: Bigger Brazilian Repatriation Helps Real Outperform: Analysts

Bigger Brazilian Repatriation Helps Real Outperform: Analysts

(Bloomberg) -- BRL outperformance reflects expectations of larger inflows after central bank yesterday extended time for market to register FX transactions with the bank by four hours.
  • Taxes and fines generated by repatriation reaches BRL40.1b, Brazil tax agency says; on Oct. 24, volume was BRL 33.1b
  • Extended time for transactions means BCB prepared for a greater flow, Matheus Gallina, FI trader at Quantitas, says in a phone interview
    • While repatriation flow may be temporary, it helps BRL to outperform; main reason behind currency gains have been optimism about Temer government reforms
    • BCB is unlikely to intervene to influence BRL levels, Gallina says; “even after BRL recently rose to near 3.10 from 3.30/USD, BCB kept its daily auctions volume unchanged”
  • Market expectation is for flows generated by repatriation; advances in reforms agenda also helps, Mauricio Oreng, senior strategist for Brazil at Rabobank, says
  • NOTE: Brazilians with money abroad have until Oct 31 to join the repatriation program, which permits the legalization of the money after taxes and fines payment
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Matheus Gallina (Quantitas Gestao de Recursos SA)
Mauricio Oreng (Banco Rabobank International Brasil SA)
Michel Temer (Federative Republic of Brazil)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: U.S. ECO PREVIEW: Durables, Jobless Claims Due in 5 Minutes

U.S. ECO PREVIEW: Durables, Jobless Claims Due in 5 Minutes

(Bloomberg) -- Factory orders for durable goods seen unchanged in Sept. after rising 0.1% in Aug. (forecast range -2% to +5%); based on value of orders received for goods manufactured to last 3 or more years.
  • Shipments of capital equipment declined for 4th consecutive month in Aug., indicating lingering weakness in manufacturing
  • Initial jobless claims seen at 255k in week ended Oct. 27 vs 260k prior week (forecast range 245k to 270k); represents inflow of workers receiving benefits.
    • Claims have been below 300k for 85 consecutive weeks, longest since 1970
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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UUID: 7947283