HALISTER1: Thailand FX Reserve Weekly Fluctuation Just Noise, ING Says

Thailand FX Reserve Weekly Fluctuation Just Noise, ING Says

(Bloomberg) -- Thailand’s foreign-exchange reserves fell in the week ending October 14 by the most since June 2013; trend here.
  • The reserves decreased 1.9% to $179.56b, according to data from BOT
  • It looks like noise as they go up in one week and they go down as much in another week, Tim Condon, head of Asia research at ING says
    • Don’t read into just one week move too much
  • Baht last week dropped 1.3% before recovering 0.6% so far this week to 35.143 per dollar
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Timothy Condon (ING Groep NV)

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HALISTER1: INSIDE ASIA: Yuan Touches Six-Year Low, Most Currencies Decline

INSIDE ASIA: Yuan Touches Six-Year Low, Most Currencies Decline

(Bloomberg) -- Most Asian currencies decline, led by Korean won, as the dollar strengthens after ECB’s Draghi remains guarded on QE, signaling it won’t come to an abrupt end.
  • Asian currencies are under pressure today, with dollar strengthening particularly against EUR and GBP, CBA foreign- exchange strategist Andy Ji says
    • Fed hike path and U.S. presidential election remain key issues
  • Yuan reaches a six-year low in both onshore and offshore markets, with the currency getting tested after PBOC signaled tolerance for a weaker rate with its fixing
    • CNH falls as much as 0.3% to 6.7678 vs USD, weakest since September 2010, with the trading taking place as Hong Kong is beset by a typhoon
    • CNH decline suggests continuation of downtrend as Chinese economy is expected to weaken, says Stuart Allsopp, head of financial market strategy at BMI Research
    • Net yuan outflow by Chinese banks, on behalf of clients, surges 61% to record $44.7b in September from the prior month, according to data released by SAFE; outflow shows concerns about yuan depreciation, according to OCBC
    • SAFE hasn’t seen panic purchases of foreign currencies in China, which shows supply and demand pressure is easing, a senior SAFE official says
    • New home prices rose m/m in 63 cities out of 70 in September, down from 64 cities in August. Prices dropped in six cities vs four a month ago, as the government steps up curbs
  • Yen fluctuates as a 6.6 quake in parts of the country triggers a decline in equities
    • BOJ Governor Kuroda says it’s possible that price outlook may be altered; 80t yen bond-buying target allows for some flexibility and it’s possible purchases would be lower
    • Former board member Shirai says BOJ new framework is implicit tapering; central bank may buy less than the annual target of JGBs to maintain 10-year yield at more or less around zero percent: according to Norinchukin Research Institute
    • Downside risk on USD/JPY may be limited on buy-on-dip flow, says Takashi Kudo, head of corporate sales at Moneysquare Japan
  • Aussie gains, while kiwi drops
    • Goldman Sachs sees RBA beginning tightening cycle early 2018
    • Case for correction toward 0.74 by year end if Fed tightens in December: Westpac
    • New Zealand proposes changes to rules governing dairy market, Fonterra
  • Won fell for third straight week
    • KRW, MYR and SGD most vulnerable to Fed rate hike in December, Scotiabank writes in note today; recommends buying USD against basket of KRW, MYR and SGD with equal weight, targeting 2.5% gain in coming weeks
  • Ringgit little changed ahead of Malaysia’s 2017 budget scheduled for release at 4pm local time
    • Nation CPI rises 1.5% y/y vs est. +1.8%; foreign reserves rise to $97.8b as at Oct. 14
  • Baht falls; foreign-exchange reserves fall 1.9% to $179.6b, BOT says today
    • Entertainment and consumption-related activities may slow during one-year mourning period following death of the king, says BOT Governor Veerathai Santiprabhob
    • Sept. exports may still stay positive for second straight month on rising overseas orders, Deputy Commerce Minister Suvit Maesincee says
  • Peso falls 0.5%, first decline in four days
    • Duterte declared “separation from the U.S.” late Thursday during visit to China; U.S. says it is baffled by the comment
    • Philippines to see $13.5b in economic and finance deals from visit to China, Trade Secretary Lopez said yesterday
    • Monetary policy settings remain appropriate, central bank says in inflation report
    • Interest rates remaining low in Europe may drive portfolio flows to Philippines as investor search for yields, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Deputy Governor Diwa Guinigundo says
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
2539Z GR (European Central Bank)

People
Andy Ji (Commonwealth Bank of Australia)
Diwa Guinigundo (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas)
Stuart Allsopp (Business Monitor International Ltd)
Takashi Kudo (MONEY SQUARE HOLDINGS Inc)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: Mizuho Says It Likes Toshiba, Mitsui O.S.K., Kobe Steel Bonds

Mizuho Says It Likes Toshiba, Mitsui O.S.K., Kobe Steel Bonds

(Bloomberg) -- Mizuho likes bonds of Toshiba, Mitsui O.S.K. and Kobe Steel as the fiscal second-quarter earnings season comes into full swing, credit analysts Shogo Tono and Hideki Matsumoto write in report dated Friday.
  • There’s little concern about Toshiba’s balance sheet and its short-term bonds have “high investment value,” they write
  • Mitsui O.S.K.’s earnings are somewhat more stable than those of rivals Nippon Yusen and Kawasaki Kisen after past structural reform and its more conservative earnings forecasts
  • Also positive that Mitsui O.S.K. is bolstering its balance sheet with steps such as getting a hybrid loan; Mizuho recommends investment in co.’s bonds that have wider spreads
  • Kobe Steel notes with wider spreads also recommended by Mizuho as China’s construction machinery market shows signs of hitting bottom
  • NOTE: Mitsui O.S.K.’s 100 Bln Yen Hybrid Loan Credit Positive: Mizuho NSN OEGBLT6JTSE8
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
5406 JP (Kobe Steel Ltd)
6502 JP (Toshiba Corp)
9101 JP (Nippon Yusen KK)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: EU CREDIT DAILY: Daimler Jumps, Volvo Falls, BAT Takes Reynolds

EU CREDIT DAILY: Daimler Jumps, Volvo Falls, BAT Takes Reynolds

(Bloomberg) -- EUR corporate bonds were buoyed by Mario Draghi’s net dovish comments Thursday, but credit spreads could see some consolidation into the weekend as focus swings to quarterly earnings, Bloomberg strategist Simon Ballard writes.
  • Asian credit mkts softer for choice overnight on mixed earnings; equities mixed and synthetic indexes marginally weaker
    • Risk appetite buffeted of late by mix of positive corp earnings results (incl. Goldman Sachs, Microsoft) and lackluster forecasts (incl. Nestle, eBay)
  • GBP risk assets set to remain volatile over coming weeks as U.K. warned to expect ’tough’ Brexit talks; investors may see better price performance potential in EUR credit exposure
  • Risk Appetite Model pushed further into risk-on territory by ECB rhetoric
  • Bloomberg Barclays Eur-Agg Corporate index closed yday at 111bps (flat); Bloomberg Barclays Eur HY index closed at 374bps (-7bps)
  • CDX IG closed +0.3bps at 73.90; iTraxx Asia Ex Japan IG is currently +0.2bps at 116.38 and iTraxx Australia quoted +0.7bps at 104.08
NEWS
  • Corporate News
  • BAT Plans to Take Full Control of Reynolds in $47 Billion Deal
  • Daimler Quarterly Profit Jumps 10% on Mercedes Car Demand
  • Volvo Profit Falls as North American Truck Orders Plunge
  • SAP Raises Sales, Profit Forecast on Improved Cloud Outlook
  • Assa Abloy 3Q Operating Income Misses Estimates, Sales Beat
  • Metso Revenue Below Estimates, Higher Uncertainty in Oil & Gas
  • Villeroy & Boch 9-Month Revenue Rises 2.8%; Keeps FY Forecast
  • InterContinental Hotels 3Q Comparable Revpar Misses Estimates
  • Norwegian Property 3Q Net NK195.7m Vs NK71.2m
  • Sanoma Raises 2016 Outlook on Improved Operational Performance
  • Ericsson 3Q Net Loss Exceeds Ests.; Sees Weaker Sales Growth
  • Telia 3Q Adj. Ebitda in Line With Ests.; Net Misses on Provision
  • Financial News
  • Bank of Ayudhya 3Q Net 5.83b Baht; Analyst Est. 5.48b Baht
  • BNP Paribas Offers Employees EU1,000 Bonuses, Les Echos Says
  • China Banks Sold Net 179.3b Yuan of Forex for Clients in Sept.
  • Rating News
  • Costa’s Balancing Act Seen Letting Portugal Keep Crucial Rating
  • Fitch: Indian Telco Outlook Negative Amid Intense Competition
  • S&PGR Affirms APPF Retail Rtgs At ’A+/A-1’; Outlook Stable
  • Other News
  • Euro Falls to Lowest Since March as Draghi Guarded on QE Course
  • Foreign Funds Baffled by Brexit See ‘Sell’ Sign Flash on Gilts
ANALYST VIEWS
  • With the baseline scenario for the growth outlook subject to downside risks and underlying inflation trends failing to convince, we believe it is odds-on that the (ECB’s) asset purchase programme will have to be extended beyond next March, and may well be increased in size and/or be more targeted: creditmarketdaily.com
NEW ISSUES
  • Aviva EU500m 7Y MS +60
  • EIB EU500m 3/2026 at MS -28
  • Goldman Sachs EU1.25b 8.5NC7.5 MS +105
  • Hypo Oberoesterreich EU300m 7Y Covered Bond MS +8
  • Western Power GBP30m 2.671% 2043 I/L Tap UKTI +145
  • European IG credit pipeline here and HY credit pipeline here
  • Issuers exposed to S-T rollover and interest-rate reset risk here
  • NOTE: Simon Ballard is a credit strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice.
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
VOLVB SS (Volvo AB)
BATS LN (British American Tobacco PLC)

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HALISTER1: Sell Buxl ASW as Embedded QE Scarcity Premium Very High: BNP

Sell Buxl ASW as Embedded QE Scarcity Premium Very High: BNP

(Bloomberg) -- Expect Buxl ASW move to low 20bps once ECB announces a change in QE parameters, BNP Paribas strategists including Eric Oynoyan write in client note.
  • Enter half now at 32.9bp and on any additional widening to 37bp; target 20/22bp, stop 40bp
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
2539Z GR (European Central Bank)

People
Eric Oynoyan (BNP Paribas SA)

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HALISTER: British American Tobacco Offers to Buy Rest of Reynolds

British American Tobacco Offers to Buy Rest of Reynolds

(Bloomberg) -- British American Tobacco proposes to buy the remaining 57.8% of Reynolds American it doesn’t already own.
  • Proposal values Reynolds at $56.50 per share, of which $24.13 would be in cash and $32.37 would be in BAT shares
Link to Statement:Link
Alert: HALISTER
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
BATS LN (British American Tobacco PLC)
RAI US (Reynolds American Inc)

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UUID: 7947283

(2) *BAT MADE PROPOSAL TO BUY REMAINING REYNOLDS SHRS AT $56.50/SHR

*BAT MADE PROPOSAL TO BUY REMAINING REYNOLDS SHRS AT $56.50/SHR

Alerts: HALISTER, HALISTER1
Source: BN (Bloomberg News)

Tickers
BATS LN (British American Tobacco PLC)
RAI US (Reynolds American Inc)

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UUID: 7947283