HALISTER1: U.S. ECO PREVIEW: Employment Reports Due in 5 Minutes

U.S. ECO PREVIEW: Employment Reports Due in 5 Minutes

(Bloomberg) -- Nonfarm payrolls seen at +172k in Sept. vs +151k in Aug. (forecast range +125k to +220k), data based on survey of employers; click here for research roundup indicating economists see payrolls picking up in Sept.
  • Today’s report “will help to frame the economic outlook through the remaining presidential debates”: Bloomberg Intelligence
  • Average hourly earnings est. +0.3% m/m in Sept. vs +0.1% in Aug. (forecast range +0.2% to +0.3%)
  • Unemployment rate seen at 4.9% in Sept., same as Aug.; based on survey of households (forecast range 4.7% to 4.9%)
    • Unemployment rate has been below 5% since May
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Topics
First Word Agriculture

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: ECB Taper ‘Feasible’, Would Push 10y Bund Yield to ~0.30%: Citi

ECB Taper ‘Feasible’, Would Push 10y Bund Yield to ~0.30%: Citi

(Bloomberg) -- Had already been thinking that a 6-month QE extension would be difficult for ECB to execute, and believe some form of taper is “feasible”, Citi strategists including Harvinder Sian write in client note.
  • Bloomberg news story on ECB having tapering option on the table underlines that achieving consensus on the Council will be tough, and hawks will extract something from the December decision
  • ECB hawks, some centrists may be emboldened by 2019 staff projections, which will show HICP close to 2%; given 2019 projections will be published at Dec. meeting adds a bearish backdrop
  • Some form of re-calibration of PSPP size is feasible, alongside a 6-month timetable extension; this could be a pace reduction from EU80b to the previous E60b or perhaps lower
  • Market would view change in QE as tapering, bringing forward timing of first hike as real rates move higher, this would therefore be a “policy error”
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
2539Z GR (European Central Bank)

People
Harvinder Sian (Citigroup Inc)

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UUID: 7947283