HALISTER1: PREVIEW U.S. SEPTEMBER AUTO SALES: Incentives Likely to Rise

PREVIEW U.S. SEPTEMBER AUTO SALES: Incentives Likely to Rise

(Bloomberg) -- U.S. Sept. light vehicle SAAR est. 17.5m vs 18m y/y, 17m m/m.
  • Earlier, Car Sales Slump Seen Overdone With Pent-Up Demand Being Released
  • See Bloomberg estimate chart
    • GM supply chain; Ford supply chain; FCAU supply chain
    • Bloomberg Intelligence primers for GM, Ford, Fiat Chrysler
ANALYST COMMENTARY
  • Goldman (David Tamberrino): Channel checks indicate incentives were increasing for small/mid-size SUVs/CUVs despite increased consumer preferences, suggesting incremental competition in the segment
    • Says average transaction prices (ATPs) down y/y, but to likely flatten as month closes out with increased pickup sales
    • Sees incentives down given higher up-front incentives at Labor Day sales events
  • JPMorgan (Ryan Brinkman): Sees industry sales to decline by -0.7% y/y on an absolute basis, given strong comps
    • Channel checks indicate incentives likely to rise in low teens y/y in Sept.
    • Still sees average transaction prices to rise y/y, helped by a richer mix of trucks and SUVs
  • Wells Fargo (Richard Kwas): Continues to believe additional production cuts needed to right size inventories
    • Supplier multiples compressed, but stocks to have tough time working until 2017 NA production estimates are reduced
  • TrueCar: Sept. auto sales expected to dip slightly but remain on pace for record year
    • Automakers still posting higher-than-average transaction prices with strong consumer demand for luxury and SUV vehicles
ESTIMATES
  • Big 3 ests.:
    • Fiat Chrysler: -5.1%
    • Ford: -8%
    • GM: -1.6%
  • Other ests.:
    • Honda: +1.6%
    • Toyota: +2%
    • Nissan: -1.4%
    • Hyundai/Kia: +0.1%
    • Volkswagen: -2.5%
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
005380 KS (Hyundai Motor Co)
F US (Ford Motor Co)
FCAU US (Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV)
GM US (General Motors Co)
7267 JP (Honda Motor Co Ltd)

People
David Tamberrino (Goldman Sachs & Co)
Richard Kwas (Wachovia Securities Inc)
Ryan Brinkman (JPMorgan Chase & Co)
Ryan Sees (JPMorgan Chase Bank NA)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: British Columbia Hydro and Power Authority - Rating Report

British Columbia Hydro and Power Authority - Rating Report

Alert: HALISTER1
Source: DBR (Dominion Bond Rating Service)

Tickers
BRCO CN (British Columbia Hydro & Power Authority)

People
Tom Li (DBRS Inc)

Topics
Fixed Income Research
Industry & Sector Research
Credit Analysis Research
Credit Research
Investment Research

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER: Deutsche Bank Rebounds as Cryan Moves to Shore Up Confidence

Deutsche Bank Rebounds as Cryan Moves to Shore Up Confidence

Alert: HALISTER
Source: BN (Bloomberg News)

Tickers
DBK GR (Deutsche Bank AG)
3887110Z LN (Autonomous Research LLP)

People
John Cryan (Deutsche Bank AG)
Chris Rokos (Rokos Capital Management LLP)
Israel Englander (Millennium Partners LP)
Jernej Omahen (Goldman Sachs & Co)
Lothar Mentel (Tatton Investment Management Ltd)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: Go Long OATei40 vs HICPxT, GBP 30s50s Real Yield Flattener: Citi

Go Long OATei40 vs HICPxT, GBP 30s50s Real Yield Flattener: Citi

(Bloomberg) -- Expect little Europe linker long-end core supply until next year, which should help long-end core break-evens recover, Citi strategists including Jabaz Mathai write in a client note.
  • Recommend buying OATei40 break-evens vs matched maturity inflation swaps; target 9bp, stop 26bp
  • In periphery, remain long Spain real yields vs Italy
    • Stay long SPGBei30 real yield vs BTPei26; entry +5bp, current -4bp, target -12bp, new stop +5bp (from +14bp)
  • Doubt GBP 5s30s break-even inflation curve re-steepening has legs as FX support for the front-end probably has more longevity than QE support for the long-end
    • GBP 30s50s real yield flatteners are worth a look, especially around the time of the conventional 2065s syndication scheduled for the second half of October
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Jabaz Mathai (Citigroup Inc)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER: NXP Semi Said to Be Looking for $120/Shr, CNBC’s Faber Says

NXP Semi Said to Be Looking for $120/Shr, CNBC’s Faber Says

(Bloomberg) -- NXP Semiconductor speculated to want $120/shr for takeout, CNBC’s David Faber and Jim Cramer said, without saying where they got info.
  • Earlier, NXP SEMI/QUALCOMM STREET WRAP: Merger Would Be Highly Accretive
  • Shrs up another 6% today after closing up ~17% yday
  • NOTE: Yday, Qualcomm Said to Be in Talks to Acquire NXP Semiconductors: DJ
Alert: HALISTER
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
NXPI US (NXP Semiconductors NV)
QCOM US (QUALCOMM Inc)

People
David Faber (CNBC Inc)
James Cramer (TheStreet Inc)

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UUID: 7947283