Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- Retail sales seen falling 0.1% m/m in Aug. after showing no change in July (forecast range -0.8% to +0.2%); tracks sale of new and used goods for personal or household consumption.

• Prior report showed 8 of 12 other major retail categories declined in July
• Producer price index seen rising 0.1% in Aug. after declining 0.4% in July (forecast range -0.2% to +0.3%); PPI is one of three monthly inflation reports from Labor Dept.
• Initial jobless claims seen at 265k in wk ended Sept. 10 vs 259 prior wk (forecast range 250k to 275k); represents inflow of workers receiving benefits
• Also today:
  • Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook seen at 1 in Sept. vs 2 in Aug. (forecast range -4 to 5); gauge of sentiment in Philadelphia Fed district (Eastern Pennsylvania, Southern New Jersey, Delaware)
  • Empire State Mfg Survey seen at -1 in Sept. vs -4.21 in Aug. (forecast range -7 to 4); tracks sentiment among manufacturers in New York Fed district
  • Current account balance seen at -$121b in 2Q vs -$124.7 in 1Q (forecast range -$112.4b to -$130b); tracks trade in goods, services, income and current transfers

(Bloomberg) -- BRL rises, outpacing most EM currencies as BCB keeps unchanged its pace of intervention.

• BRL gains 0.5% to 3.3274 per dollar; DI Jan 21 rate -4bps
  • Central bank to auction up to 5,000 reverse FX swaps, 2nd day in a row; offering due 9:30am-9:40am local time
• NOTE: BCB cut the volume from 10,000 as BRL has been outperforming all EM peers this month; some analysts yday said BCB may even suspend the auction if volatility keeps rising
• Ex-President Lula holds press conference at 1pm local time to comment on corruption charges filed by Brazilian authorities

(Bloomberg) -- U.S. IG cut to market perform due to several risks that could upset market in the short-term, including the Fed, renewed oil volatility and the U.S. election, CreditSights says in a note.

• Downgrades high beta sectors to market perform, upgrades life insurance to outperform given its long dated nature
• Doesn’t see U.S. growth rising above the 2% growth of the past 5 years, though strong 3Q may “further fuel interest rate bears”
• Trump election win would increase near-term uncertainty

(Bloomberg) -- BOE bank rate est. 0.25% vs prev 0.25%.

• BOE asset purchase target est. GBP435b vs prev GBP435b
• Bank publishes minutes of the meeting showing how each Monetary Policy Committee member voted at the same time
• NOTE: Bank of England Gauges Brexit Tactics as Rate Seen Kept at 0.25%