HALISTER1: CHINA PREVIEW: CNH Eyes Aug. High If Exports Beat Est.: Analysis

CHINA PREVIEW: CNH Eyes Aug. High If Exports Beat Est.: Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- Offshore yuan could rise toward its Aug. 18 high of 6.6230 per dollar in near term if China’s Aug. exports decline less than expected, Bloomberg analysis shows.
  • Exports probably contracted 4.0% y/y after a 4.4% drop in July, according to median est. in Bloomberg survey; ests. range from -7.0% to +3.3%; data due on Sept. 8
  • Imports may fall 5.4% y/y last month, a slower pace of contraction vs a 12.5% drop in July, according to a separate survey
  • China’s new export orders PMI rose to 49.7 last month from 49.0 in July
  • USD/CNH down 0.02% at 6.6738 after earlier breaking below 50-DMA, which now at 6.6731, for first time since Aug. 24
  • Slow stochastics %K is at 55 and falling
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: USD/KRW Spot Seen Opening About 0.9% Lower, Forwards Imply

USD/KRW Spot Seen Opening About 0.9% Lower, Forwards Imply

(Bloomberg) -- USD/KRW 1-month NDF dropped to 1,095.30 overnight after ISM services index fell to 51.4 vs est. 54.9, driving the dollar down broadly vs peers.
  • The NDF’s level compares with onshore close for USD/KRW at 1,105.25.
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: CORRECT: Aussie May Revisit Triple Top on GDP, Lowe: Analysis

CORRECT: Aussie May Revisit Triple Top on GDP, Lowe: Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- (Corrects quarter to 2Q in first and third bullets.)
  • A series of AUD/USD triple tops near 0.7750 may be revisited by end-Sept if 2Q GDP beats estimates and new RBA governor Philip Lowe fails to jawbone Aussie lower in response, writes Bloomberg strategist Michael G. Wilson.
  • Spot has formed a solid base off 0.7490 100-DMA, which is also August 31 low
    • Triple tops comprise of 0.7756/50/49 highs in Aug.
    • Slow stochastic momentum indicator at 34 and climbing
    • AUD/USD currently +0.20% at 0.7597
  • 2Q GDP probably gained 3.2% y/y vs. prev. 3.1%, according to median est. of 29 economists surveyed by Bloomberg; ests. ranged from 3.0% to 3.5%; data due tomorrow at 11:30am local
  • Incoming RBA Governor Lowe will deliver introductory remarks on Thursday
    • In March 2016, Lowe said “I think, like everyone, we would welcome a slightly lower exchange rate” to help with rebalancing of economy; AUD/USD was trading at 0.7455 back then
    • When asked in Dec. 2012 about threshold for unconventional monetary policy, Lowe said hypothetically it would be ’around 1 percent, plus or minus a bit,’; policy rate then was double the current 1.5%
  • A GDP data beat may push any chance of an RBA cut into 2Q17
  • Fed pricing in wake of NFP has been dialed back; likewise, a host of forecasters who’d called for a September Fed hike
    • See Research Roundup
  • NOTE: Michael G. Wilson is an FX strategist who writes for First Word. The observations he makes are his own.
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
8223572Z US (Jawbone Inc)
40005Z AU (Reserve Bank of Australia)

People
Philip Lowe (Reserve Bank of Australia)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: Vancouver Airport Authority - DBRS Rating Report

Vancouver Airport Authority - DBRS Rating Report

Alert: HALISTER1
Source: DBR (Dominion Bond Rating Service)

Tickers
1238Z CN (Vancouver Airport Authority)

People
Priscilla Ntiamoa (DBRS Ltd)

Topics
Fixed Income Research
Prov., Reg. Credit Research
Investment Research
Credit Analysis Research
Credit Research

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER: Chipotle Holder Pershing Reports New 9.9% Stake in 13D

Chipotle Holder Pershing Reports New 9.9% Stake in 13D

(Bloomberg) -- Chipotle holder Pershing Square to seek talks with management.
  • CMG shares gain 7.7% post-market
Statement Link
Alert: HALISTER
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
CMG US (Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc)
805865Z US (Pershing Square Capital Management LP)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: U.S. chamber in action call on bank accounts US chamber seeks solution on bank account closures

U.S. chamber in action call on bank accounts US chamber seeks solution on bank account closures

Alert: HALISTER1
Source: SMP (South China Morning Post)

People
Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-Ngor (Hong Kong Special Administrative Region)
Gareth Hewett (Hongkong & Shanghai Banking Corp Ltd/The)
Richard Vuylsteke (American Chamber Of Commerce)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: BofAML Sees ‘Narrow Window’ to Sell UST 5Y, Real Yields

BofAML Sees ‘Narrow Window’ to Sell UST 5Y, Real Yields

(Bloomberg) -- While investors “are eagerly looking towards policies that trigger a re-steepening of global yield curves” -- such as fiscal stimulus and central banks reducing purchase programs -- these may not have the expected effect, BofAML strategists Shyam Rajan and Ralf Preusser say in note.
  • History suggests tinkering with central bank purchase programs can result in higher real curves, “tightening financial conditions and proving to be counterproductive”
  • Fiscal stimulus “has often led to a healthy increase in rates driven by breakevens”; however, central bank purchases and/or tail risk of policy mistake could offset the normal response
  • Single largest driver of global flattening over last 3 years has been decline in inflation expectations, which calls for fiscal policy, not curbing monetary purchase programs
  • Narrow window to position for fiscal stimulus is best expressed “through fading the richness of the 5y point or being short real rates as opposed to curve steepeners”
  • BofAML recommends selling 5Y outright or on 2s5s10s swap butterfly; also selling real yields, a reversal on one of the bank’s top trades for 2016
    • Investors should scale into real yield shorts via paying 10y real rates through inflation swaps
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Ralf Preusser (Merrill Lynch International)
Shyam Rajan (Bank of America Corp)

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UUID: 7947283