Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- License revoked for violation of law on money laundering, Bank of Russia says on website.

• GRiS-Bank was #615 by assets in Russia as of Aug.1
• NOTE: Link to statement (in Russian)

(Bloomberg) -- Australian yields remain attractive relative to avg global yield, even after compressing sharply over course of year, is the view from some of its clients in Asia, ANZ senior rates strategist Martin Whetton writes in note today.

• Yield, political stability, and lack of alternatives regionally on risk-adjusted basis are favorable, with strong AUD an unexpected windfall as asset owners are typically unhedged on currency
• Investors also mentioned strong liquidity available in AUD govt bonds, an important factor when investing, with sovereign rating seen as not much a concern
• While bond investors recognize tight AUD-USD yield spread, they feel RBA will continue to lower policy rates and thus deliver more capital gains
• Investors see AUD/USD in mid-0.70s to 0.80 range, with possibility of long-term decline
• Related story: RBA unlikely done cutting, stay long short- dated bonds, says Altius
• Yield on 10-year Australian govt bonds down 3 bps at 1.878%
• AUD/USD up 0.6% at 0.7700

(Bloomberg) -- Even if the Indonesian central bank cuts reference rate tomorrow, rupiah could still advance to 13,000 per dollar in near term, as bond and stock inflows continue, Bloomberg strategist Andrew Robinson writes.

• Central bank will cut reference rate by 25 bps to 6.25%, according to majority of economists in Bloomberg survey; 5 out of 9 see a cut while remainder forecast no change
  • This would be the fifth cut this year; announcement due tomorrow
• Indonesian govt bonds and stocks have seen inflows of about $11b this year
  • Inflows into stocks and bonds so far this year are highest since 2014
  • 10-year IDR govt bond yield of 6.84% compares with 3.531% for MYR and 1.417% for KRW
• USD/IDR could drop to 13,000 level in near term; FX pair is below both cloud and base and conversion lines on ichimoku chart, which are bearish signals
• USD/IDR up 0.1% at 13,114 today; FX pair last traded below 13,000 on March 7
• NOTE: Andrew Robinson is an FX strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice

(Bloomberg) -- Aussie surges after better-than-expected jobs data, while minutes from the July Fed meeting suggest a rate hike isn’t imminent, fueling gains among Asian currencies.

• Sentiment in Asian currencies will likely be stable before Fed Chairwoman Yellen speaks at Jackson Hole on Aug. 26, Gao Qi, Scotiabank Asia FX strategist says
  • Further strength in Asian currencies may be capped given the dollar is oversold on technical levels
• Aussie gains as much as 0.8% after nation added +26,200 jobs m/m, highest since Nov. 2015, vs est. +10,000
  • Leveraged accounts add to AUD/USD longs after strong headline number, according to an Asia-based FX trader
  • Still, RBA is unlikely to be done with rate cuts given low inflation, says Chris Dickman, Sydney-based principal at Altius Asset Management
• Yen pares gains ahead of regular meeting btw BOJ, MOF and FSA this afternoon. Trades 0.2% higher at 100.09 after earlier rising as much as 0.6%
  • Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs says will act appropriately if there are excessive FX moves
  • July trade surplus 513.5b yen ($5b) vs est. 273.2b yen, while Japanese investors bought net 1.3t yen overseas debt last week
  • Japan’s biggest banks are running out of room to sell their govt bond holdings, pushing BOJ closer to the limits of its record monetary easing
• Yuan joins Asian currency rally though PBOC cuts daily reference rate for first time in four days
• Two-and three-year govt bonds rise after data show property market cooling. 51 out of 70 cities saw new home prices pick up in July vs 55 in June: data from statistics bureau
  • Given property prices in top-tier and lower-tier cities diverge, PBOC isn’t likely to conduct easing as it could worsen asset bubble in major cities, says BNP Paribas China strategist Shan Kun
  • M2 growth on year will reach 11% or even 12% after August, Sheng Songcheng, head of the statistics and analysis department at PBOC, China Securities Journal reported
  • NOTE: Report comes amid rising concern after credit growth slowed in July
• Southeast Asian currencies advance, led by ringgit
• Peso gains as Philippines 2Q GDP growth beat expectations and rise to highest in three years
  • June 2Q GDP +7.0% y/y vs est. +6.6%
  • Benign inflation should help BSP keep rates low, which should support investment, while strong fiscal position will give govt. scope to boost spending: Capital Economics
  • Higher GDP growth in 2Q supports Philippine central bank’s stance to maintain monetary policy settings, Deputy Governor Diwa Guinigundo says
• Rupiah bucks regional gains as markets reopen after public holiday yesterday
  • Bank Indonesia starts two-day policy meeting today; expected to cut reference rate to 6.25% from 6.50%, according to 5 out of 9 economists in Bloomberg survey; rest see no change

(Bloomberg) -- While emerging-market bond supply has remained relatively stable, demand has been strong recently, said Amanda Stitt, London-based investment director at Legg Mason Global Asset Management.

• “We generally get worried when valuations become extreme, but we are not there yet given the valuation levels we came from,” she said in an interview in Hong Kong
• Asian notes will be a beneficiary of global hunt for quality yield, she said
• Noted that securities from Asia typically more-highly rated than debt from emerging markets such as Latin America and many parts of eastern Europe
• Favors quasi-sovereign bonds across Asia in sectors such as infrastructure, telecommunication, banking and utilities; especially favors such investments in India and Indonesia

Economic Release Details: {PHGDPYOY Index ECOD} --CLARISSA BATINO