INSIDE ASIA: Currencies Fall as Oil Decline Spurs Risk-Off Bets
(Bloomberg) -- Most Asian currencies decline as investors scale back stimulus expectations and cut back on demand for emerging-market assets amid falling oil prices.
- The ringgit and kiwi led the drop, as the dollar gains.
- Markets are repricing expectations for monetary and fiscal policy stimulus in Asia, which is supporting USD, says Andy Ji, FX strategist at CBA
- The yen pares some of its gains yesterday, posted as PM Abe’s stimulus failed to surprise, to trade at 101.20 today. 10-year JGB yield had its first drop in five days after BOJ’s Kuroda said the bank is unlikely to wind back its monetary stimulus
- Japan’s Finance Ministry plans to discuss with bond dealers next month a potential expansion in the issuance of 40-yr debt, according to an official at the ministry
- The nation needs to push for stronger wage growth and labor market reform for economic revival, IMF official tells CNBC
- USD/JPY may fall below 100, says Yasuhiro Kaizaki, vice president for global markets at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank. If Japan’s bond yields continue to rise, it’s likely to spur risk aversion and yen buying
- Malaysian ringgit falls by the most in two weeks. Decline is in line with sliding oil prices, below $40 per barrel, stemming from global supply glut, Scotiabank writes in note today
- Won drops for a second day
- Minutes of July’s BOK meeting indicate policy makers are waiting to see the effects of previous rate cut before easing further, Swissquote wrote in note
- Aussie and kiwk slide
- Kiwi falls on wage data, triggers leveraged cross stops, according to an FX trader
- ASB cuts employment growth forecast. Expects 2Q employment growth of 0.3%, compared with previous projection of 0.7%
- As Australia’s monetary easing nears an end, Wells Fargo’s A$ outlook is for limited declines in the currency, according to note received today. A$ may trade at 0.69 over next 12 months with risk of a shallower decline
- Australia 3-year govt. bond yield rises 6 bps to 1.438%, while Japan 10-year govt. bond yield drops 3 bp to -0.090
- Other Southeast Asian currencies fall
- Baht drops ahead of central bank’s rate decision, though 22 of 23 economists in Bloomberg survey expect it to hold benchmark rate at 1.5%
- Thai economic growth this year is likely to be 3.2%, below potential growth of 4% to 5%, UOB economists write in note
- Overseas investors bought net 23.6b baht of Thai bonds yesterday, the most in almost two months
- Rupiah heads for second day of losses even as international investors bought net $224.4m of local equities yesterday, biggest one-day inflow since April 2015
- Indonesia to consider selling USD-denominated bonds to local investors this year to absorb repatriated funds under tax amnesty program, Bisnis Indonesia reports citing finance ministry official
- Strongest CNY fixing since June didn’t move yuan, with the onshore currency little changed. CNH falls
- Extra cost for three-month options to sell yuan against dollar in Hong Kong over contracts to buy was near the lowest level since Sept. 2014, as option traders are less bearish on speculation that China wants to stabilize the currency
- Researchers at China’s top economic planner says nation should further cut rates & RRR when appropriate
- Caixin Services PMI 51.7 in July vs 52.7 in June; Caixin Composite PMI rises to 51.9 from 50.3
- China QDII quota utilization rate at record 90%: Z-Ben
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HALISTER1Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)
People Andy Ji (Commonwealth Bank of Australia)
Yasuhiro Kaizaki (Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc)
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