HALISTER1: EUROPE RISK TIMELINE: BOE in Focus as Politics Takes Back Seat

EUROPE RISK TIMELINE: BOE in Focus as Politics Takes Back Seat

(Bloomberg) -- Expectations for the BOE meeting are high after ECB and BOJ meetings offered little new for investors.
  • MAIN RISK EVENTS:
  • BOE in focus after the ECB didn’t discuss any specific easing measures and the BOJ approved only minor tweaks to stimulus; the U.K. central bank is widely expected to do more after its July steer but may still hold some options such as QE in reserve
  • Data on both sides of the channel will continue to be watched for signals on the initial impact of the U.K.’s vote to leave the EU
  • Any signal of an increased focus on fiscal policy in Europe or that Japan’s spending boost is working also seen key factors for asset prices
  • Spanish politics may be back in focus; initial relief that left-leaning parties didn’t win enough seats to form government is shifting to the ongoing stalemate as a new deadline to address the country’s deficit looms and Catalonia plans to move ahead with secession
  • Italy PM Renzi’s fate remains tied to a solution for the country’s banks even as the latest stress-test results spur speculation about further capital increases and there remain questions about the MPS capital plan
  • With oil retreating toward $40, news on supply will continue to be in focus as markets weigh impact on asset classes
AUGUST
  • More details on Abe’s fiscal easing plans expected
  • 01: Greece must repay ~EU80m in IMF loans
  • 03: U.K. July services, composite PMI
  • 04: BOE rate decision, minutes
  • 16: U.K. July CPI
  • 17: U.K. July claimant count; June average weekly earnings
  • 17: Fed releases July minutes
  • 18: ECB accounts
  • 19: Fitch may review Portugal’s rating
  • 24: Euro-zone preliminary August services, composite PMI
  • 26: Fed chair Janet Yellen to speak at Jackson Hole
  • 30: German August CPI
SEPTEMBER
  • 2: Fitch may review Greece, Finland ratings
  • 4: Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania regional elections
  • 5: U.K. August services, composite PMI
  • 8: ECB rate decision
  • 13: U.K. August CPI
  • 14: U.K. August claimant count; July average weekly earnings
  • 15: BOE rate decision
  • 16: S&P may review Portugal’s rating
  • 18: Berlin regional elections
  • 19: Fitch may review Portugal’s rating
  • 21: U.K. August Public Sector Net Borrowing
  • 21: Fed rate decision; some analysts including Goldman’s Jan Hatzius say could lift rates as soon as this month
  • 25: Election in Spain’s Basque country
  • 26: Tentative date for first U.S. presidential debate; Trump says he’s not happy the debates compete with NFL games
  • 28: Catalonia confidence vote after region approves secession
  • 29: German September CPI
  • 30: S&P may review Spain’s rating
OCTOBER
  • Italian referendum on constitutional reform will likely take place this month; Barclays analysts say without reform, Italy faces the risk of political upheaval, pointing out the country’s PM Renzi has repeatedly said he will step down if plan isn’t approved
  • Second progress review of Greece reforms expected to begin
  • 2: Hungary referendum on whether the EU should be able to order Hungary to accept the settlement of migrants
  • 2-5: U.K. ruling Conservative Party conference in Birmingham; may discuss Brexit, fiscal stimulus
  • 2: Austria presidential election re-run
  • 5: U.K. September services, composite PMI
  • 6: ECB accounts
  • 9: Possible date of second U.S. presidential debate
  • 14: SEC’s money market reforms take effect
  • 15: Deadline for Spain, Portugal to take action on budget deficits
  • 19: U.K. Sept. claimant count; August average weekly earnings
  • 20: ECB rates decision
  • 21: U.K. September Public Sector Net Borrowing
  • 21: Fitch may review Italy’s rating; S&P may review France’s
  • 27: U.K. advanced 3Q GDP
  • 28: German October CPI
  • 28: S&P may review U.K. credit rating; the rating company downgraded the country to AA vs AAA with a negative outlook in June
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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2539Z GR (European Central Bank)

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Janet Yellen (Federal Reserve System)

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HALISTER1: RBA Statement Somewhat Hawkish, No Easing Guidance: Citigroup

RBA Statement Somewhat Hawkish, No Easing Guidance: Citigroup

(Bloomberg) -- Much of RBA’s statement today is a reproduction of the July comments, with no mention of further easing guidance, Citigroup analysts write in note.
  • RBA appears to be sanguine about the housing market
  • “We wouldn’t be surprised if AUD ended up higher following the RBA’s interest rate cut,” Todd Elmer, Singapore-based strategist at Citigroup writes in note
    • AUD had already seen downward pressure ahead of RBA
    • Today’s move doesn’t do much to diminish AUD’s attractiveness in relation to its lower-yielding, lower- credit-quality and higher-political-risk peers
    • Investors may treat the slight dip as providing an opportunity to build longs
  • AUD/USD reverses earlier losses to trade up 0.2% to 0.7548 after hitting session low at 0.7491 on RBA rate cut announcement
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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Todd Elmer (Citigroup Inc)

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HALISTER1: JGB 10-Yr Futures Slide on Highest Volume in Eight Weeks

JGB 10-Yr Futures Slide on Highest Volume in Eight Weeks

(Bloomberg) -- Japan 10-yr Sept. bond futures falling for fourth day, down 99 ticks to 151.25 and heading for lowest close in more than four months.
  • Volume of 45,488 contracts traded by 2:30pm local time, most since June 10
  • 10-yr govt bond yield rises 10 bps to -0.45% after demand for the securities fell at auction
  • Related story: Doubts over BOJ’s policy outlook to weigh on JGBs, says MUFJ Trust
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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HALISTER: BMW 2Q Profit Beats Estimate; FY Forecast Confirmed

BMW 2Q Profit Beats Estimate; FY Forecast Confirmed

(Bloomberg) -- BMW 2Q Ebit EU2.73b, est. EU2.67b.
  • Revenue EU25b, est. EU24.5b
  • Auto unit Ebit margin 9.5%, est. 9.1%
  • Full-year forecast confirmed
    • Co. has forecast slight growth in 2016 pretax profit, auto Ebit margin 8%-10%
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Alert: HALISTER
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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BMW GR (Bayerische Motoren Werke AG)

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