HALISTER1: Yen Declines on Speculation on Fiscal Stimulus: NBC Financial

Yen Declines on Speculation on Fiscal Stimulus: NBC Financial

(Bloomberg) -- USD/JPY extends gain on expectations for govt’s fiscal stimulus, says David Lu, HK-based director at NBC Financial Markets Asia.
  • News reports on 27t yen fiscal stimulus and issuance of 50- year bond, both spur yen selling, says Lu in an interview
  • NOTE: Japan stimulus package to be 27t yen, Abe to announce today, FNN says
  • NOTE: Japan govt mulls issuing 50-year bonds, WSJ reports
  • USD/JPY jumps 1.6% to 106.28
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
David Lu (National Bank of Canada)

Topics
Speculation, Rumor Denials

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: INSIDE ASIA: Yen Falls on Stimulus Hopes, EMFX Mixed Before Fed

INSIDE ASIA: Yen Falls on Stimulus Hopes, EMFX Mixed Before Fed

(Bloomberg) -- Yen weakens to session low on FNN report that PM Abe will unveil stimulus package today while emerging Asian currencies are mixed in sidelined trading ahead of Fed and BOJ policy meetings.
  • Japan’s stimulus package to be 27t yen, FNN reports, adding that Abe will announce the details this afternoon
  • Divergent forces are in play for Asia-Pacific currencies at the moment, OCBC strategist Emmanuel Ng says in interview
    • JPY may be reacting to the Nikkei article about BOJ while EM Asia could be reading off positive equities and risk appetite, FOMC notwithstanding
  • Top BOJ officials are said to be looking at multiple proposals including cutting rates further into negative territory, expanding govt bond buying beyond 80t yen annual level, or expanding purchases of other assets such as ETFs, Nikkei reports, without attribution
  • Yen snaps two-day rally while govt bonds advance across the curve before BOJ policy announcement on Friday
    • USD/JPY gains may be due to re-pricing of BOJ easing, SMTB says
    • JGB yield curve flattens, led by super-longer tenor after 40-yr auction and on expectations of BOJ easing: Mizuho
    • Best way to sustainably depreciate yen would be to forgo easing this month and announce a comprehensive policy review toward Sept. meeting: Citigroup
    • USD/JPY probably won’t decisively break 110 even with Japan easing policy this week, while JGB yields will remain under pressure regardless: BofAML
  • Aussie extended advance to session high after 2Q CPI data before erasing all gains by midday in Sydney
    • Aussie bond yields surged across the curve while futures volume jumped after core CPI rose faster than expected; OIS swaps now signal 51% chance of RBA rate cut in Aug. vs 63% yday
    • AUD/USD lifted by macro selling only to encounter more of the same higher up, according to an Asia-based FX trader
    • 2Q trimmed mean CPI up 0.5% q/q vs est. 0.4% gain; consumer-price growth weakened of late, in line with global disinflation and record-low domestic wage growth
  • Onshore yuan set for a second day of gains on stronger PBOC fixing and broader gains in Asian currencies
    • China June industrial companies profit rose 5.1% y/y
    • Yuan to remain stable under PBOC management till Oct: Scotiabank
    • Shortage of quality Chinese assets will likely continue into 2H, which would force financial institutions to increase their exposure to debt, CICC analysts including Jianheng Chen wrote in note dated July 26
  • Morgan Stanley is upbeat on emerging mkts as developed economies’ policies are expected to remain accommodative following ECB meeting last week and ahead of the Fed and BOJ meetings this week, it said in note yesterday
  • Won headed for second day of gains
    • Financial imbalances could increase if there is too much easing, BOK Governor Lee says
    • Consumer confidence index rose to 101 in July, highest since April, from 99 in June
  • Rupiah set to snap three-day decline ahead of cabinet reshuffle
    • Indonesia said to announce cabinet revamp 2pm local time Wednesday, Kompas reports, adding that President Widodo may give finance minister mandate to Sri Mulyani Indrawati, managing director at World Bank
  • Baht lower ahead of trade data; 10-year govt bond declines
    • June trade data due at 11am local time; exports est. -2.60% (prior -4.40%); imports est. -8.90% (prior 0.50%); trade balance est. $1.5b (prior $1.54b)
    • BOT isn’t concerned by baht strength, Deputy Governor Mathee said yesterday
  • Ringgit declines
    • Goldman accused in a lawsuit of selling out a client to curry Malaysian PM’s favor
    • 1MDB says looking for new auditor after Deloitte previously notified co. in Feb. of intention to resign: statement yday
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Emmanuel Ng (Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp Ltd)
Mulyani Indrawati (World Bank Group/The)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: INSIDE CHINA: Yuan Rises as PBOC Strengthens Rate for Second Day

INSIDE CHINA: Yuan Rises as PBOC Strengthens Rate for Second Day

(Bloomberg) -- Yuan advances after the PBOC strengthened the daily reference rate for a second day, with the currency also tracking gains in the broader Asian market.
  • PBOC raised the reference rate by 0.2% to 6.6671 vs USD
  • The gains in Asian currencies today is driven by position adjustments ahead of the FOMC meeting, according to ANZ senior FX strategist Irene Cheung, who predicts just one rate hike by the Fed in Dec
  • The Chinese central bank will continue to manage mkt expectations until yuan’s SDR inclusion on Oct 1, Scotiabank Asia FX strategist Gao Qi writes in a note today
  • CNY gains 0.06% to 6.6706 vs USD, while CNH rises 0.07% to 6.6753
  • USD/CNH support at 6.6754, 6.6683, 6.6661; resistance at 6.6913, 6.7007, 6.7131
  • Investors are chasing yields, and have bought municipal bonds vs sovereign debt. Turnover jumps to a record 227 billion yuan in June, according to latest available data
    • China bond mkt to extend rally with shortage of assets: CICC
    • Yield of 10-yr bond little changed at 2.795%
  • Earliest China private indicators signal sentiment on upswing in July
  • China to keep prudent monetary policy and proactive fiscal policy in 2H, according to a government statement late yesterday following a Politburo meeting
  • Yuan may dip to 6.75 by year end, though China would prefer to stabilize the currency in 4Q because of key events such as U.S. presidential election, according to ANZ’s Cheung
  • Bloomberg synthetic CFETS index little changed today at 95.3360
  • 7-day repo rate falls 16.6 bps to 2.27%
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
PBCZ CH (People's Bank Of China)

People
Irene Cheung (Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd)
Qi Gao (Bank of Nova Scotia Asia Ltd/Singapore)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: Australia Bond Yields Surge Across the Curve; Futures Vol Jumps

Australia Bond Yields Surge Across the Curve; Futures Vol Jumps

(Bloomberg) -- Yield on 3-yr Australian govt bonds rises for third day, up 4 bps to 1.543%; 10-year yield gains 3 bps to 1.957%.
  • Volume for 3-year bond futures was 130,256 at 11:41 local time, already higher than full day volume for two previous sessions
  • Implied yield on 30-day cash-rate futures expiring in Aug. rises 4 bps to 1.635%
  • Overnight index swaps signal 51% chance that RBA will cut rate by 25 bps on Aug. 2, down from 63% probability seen on Tuesday, according to Credit Suisse index
  • NOTE: Australia’s Core Consumer Prices Increase Faster Than Forecast
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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HALISTER1: Australia 2Q CPI Due in 5 Mins; Est. 1.1% Y/y, 0.4% Q/q

Australia 2Q CPI Due in 5 Mins; Est. 1.1% Y/y, 0.4% Q/q

(Bloomberg) -- Australia is scheduled to release 2Q inflation data at 11.30am local time.
  • 2Q CPI q/q est. 0.4% vs prev. -0.2%
  • 2Q CPI y/y est. 1.1% vs prev. 1.3%
  • 2Q CPI trimmed mean q/q est. 0.4% vs prev. 0.2%
  • 2Q CPI trimmed mean y/y est. 1.5% vs prev. 1.7%
  • 2Q CPI weighted median q/q est. 0.4% vs prev. 0.1%
  • 2Q CPI weighted median y/y est. 1.3% vs prev. 1.4%
  • NOTE: Aussie dollar likely to remain resilient unless 2Q CPI misses by a wide margin: Analysis
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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HALISTER1: INSIDE MALAYSIA: MYR Up; Goldman Accused of Currying PM’s Favor

INSIDE MALAYSIA: MYR Up; Goldman Accused of Currying PM’s Favor

(Bloomberg) -- Ringgit gains vs dollar in line with other Asian peers after overnight drop in Dollar Index and Treasuries were mixed.
  • Goldman Sachs accused in a lawsuit of selling out a client to curry Malaysian PM’s favor
  • 1MDB says it’s looking for new auditor after Deloitte previously notified co. in Feb. of intention to resign: statement yday
  • Ringgit advances 0.1% to 4.0595 per dollar, according to onshore prices
  • USD/MYR -- consolidating above 50-DMA
    • Resistance: 4.0920, Jul 25 high; 4.1105, 76.4% Fibo retracement of drop from June 24 to July 15; 4.1272, June 28 high
    • Support: 4.0580, 50-DMA; 4.0192, 100-DMA; 3.9919, 61.8% Fibo retracement of July range
  • Blackrock sees opportunity in select local currency bond markets where yields remain attractive and where there is room for monetary easing like Malaysia, India, and Indonesia, according to note on July 26
    • Prefers investment grade over high yield, and sees opportunities in India, Indonesia, HongKong and Australia
  • Yield on 3.9% govt bond due Nov. 2026 slid 16 bps to 3.505% yday, according to Bursa Malaysia prices, that’s the biggest drop in benchmark 10-yr yield since Sept. 30
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Topics
Government Appointments, Political Changes

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: BOJ Should Skip Easing This Week, Focus on September: Citi

BOJ Should Skip Easing This Week, Focus on September: Citi

(Bloomberg) -- Best way to sustainably depreciate yen would be to forgo easing this month and announce a comprehensive policy review toward Sept. meeting, Citigroup FX strategists write in note received today.
  • USD/JPY has declined in the period immediately following all BOJ decisions this year; click here for chart
  • If BOJ postpones easing, it should maintain market expectations and minimize JPY appreciation pressure due to position unwinding, Citi says
    • Unlikely USD/JPY can advance beyond 108, even if BOJ moves as expected, with risk of a decline toward 103 or below
  • USD/JPY up 0.3% to 104.95
  • BOJ PREVIEW: Yen Exposed to Upside Risk as Easing Well- Priced In
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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