Halister News

Economic Release Details: {CONCCONF Index ECOD} --BRENDAN MURRAY

--ANTONY SGUAZZIN

(Bloomberg) -- Cyclical dynamics, growth developments on negative shock of Brexit are likely to dominate outlook for Polish, Hungarian, Romanian currencies, Goldman Sachs analyst Ian Tomb says in e-mailed report.

• “While further weakness is possible if political uncertainty spills over from the UK into the rest of the EU, in the medium term undemanding valuations and the potential for relatively strong growth going forward argue for stronger currencies”
• Sees zloty at 4.25/EUR in 12 months, forint at 320/EUR, leu at 4.3/EUR

Economic Release Details: {SPCSUSAY Index ECOD} --BRENDAN MURRAY

Economic Release Details: {SPCS20Y% Index ECOD} --BRENDAN MURRAY

(Bloomberg) -- Widening of FRA-OIS, Libor-OIS and swap spreads reflect structural changes related to Oct. 14 money market reform deadline, not a “2008 re-run,” Triple T Consulting’s Sean Kean said in note distributed to Credit Suisse clients.

• NOTE: Libor set at 0.7430%, highest since May 2009; Libor- OIS at 32.7bps, widest since May 2012; FRA-OIS 39.3bps, widest since June 2012
• While increase in funding pressure is real, it’s not signaling a new crisis or indicative of “some form of leveraged Achilles heel” in global funding mkts
  • Even though there’s demand for USD funding, the “degree of pressure” has been steadily building as reform deadline nears
• Money mkt adjustments shouldn’t “spill over into anything more serious” other than a period of “market disruption and repricing,” as well as discomfort for foreign borrowers as they seek out USD funding sources
  • May mean USD premium via FX swap market remains elevated, especially amid the absence of arbitrage and basis traders, who are less willing and able to undertake “large basis mismatch trades”
• “Reasonable to assume” 30%-40% of remaining balances will be withdrawn before mid-Oct. and most of money mkt conversions will be done by mid-Sept.

(Bloomberg) -- S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 City Home Price Index seen rising 5.6% y/y in May after increasing 5.44% in April (forecast range +5% to +6.31%).

• M/m index seen rising 0.1% after increasing 0.45% prior month (forecast range -0.4% to +0.4%)
  • NOTE: Index based on three-month avg; covers Boston, Chicago, Denver, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, New York City, San Diego, San Francisco, Washington, D.C., Atlanta, Charlotte, Cleveland, Dallas, Detroit, Minneapolis, Phoenix, Portland, Seattle, Tampa