Fed Rate Hike in Sept. Still ‘A Distinct Possibility’: CapEcon
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)
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Paul Ashworth (Capital Economics Na Ltd)
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UUID: 7947283
(Bloomberg) -- While FOMC is unlikely to “spring any surprises” at July 26-27 mtg, Sept. action is still possible, Capital Economics economist Paul Ashworth writes in note.
Alert: HALISTER1- Statement should acknowledge pick-up in 2Q GDP growth, recent strength in consumption, rebound in employment growth in June
- Consumption “has been on an absolute tear”
- Fed won’t commit itself to Sept. rate hike in July, especially with Yellen speaking at Jackson Hole symposium on Aug. 26
- While mkts may have largely dismissed global impact of Brexit, some Fed officials may “still be nervous” that it could have negative impact in future
- Any sign of trouble in mkts between July and Sept. mtgs could make Fed shelve plans to hike until yr end
- CapEcon still expects two hikes this yr, in Sept. and Dec., and rising inflation to lead to 4 hikes next yr
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)
People
Paul Ashworth (Capital Economics Na Ltd)
To de-activate this alert, click here
UUID: 7947283