Brazil House Election May Help Temer’s Reform Plans: Tendencias
(Bloomberg) -- Election of House speaker, which is expected to occur later today, may aid the fiscal-reform plans of acting president Temer, Rafael Cortez, analyst at Tendencias Consultoria, says in a phone interview.
- NOTE: BRL has outperformed all major EMFX YTD as investors bet new government will embrace reforms to fix the budget deficit
- Candidacy of Rogerio Rosso, from PSD, could be the best for the government; Rosso could simultaneously support Temer’s reforms and get backing from the large number of deputies that previously backed former speaker Cunha
- Candidacy of PMDB’s representative Marcelo Castro, a former minister under Rousseff, is “symbolically” negative for Temer because Castro voted against impeachment of the suspended president; however, it wouldn’t pose a threat to voting on reforms because Temer’s own PMDB party is unlikely to stand against his reforms even if Castro wins
- Candidacy of Rodrigo Maia, from DEM, who also could be supportive of reforms, may lose ground as PT -- the party of Lula and Rousseff -- is said to switch support from him to Castro
- Market optimism about the political backdrop reflects bets that Rousseff will definitely be impeached, Cortez says
Alert:
HALISTER1Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)
People Eduardo Cunha (Federative Republic of Brazil)
Marcelo Castro (Federative Republic of Brazil)
Michel Temer (Federative Republic of Brazil)
Rafael Cortez (Tendencias Consultoria Integra)
Rogerio Rosso (Federative Republic of Brazil)
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