Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- Following are forecasts for today’s economic releases as compiled by Bloomberg News.

• Wholesale Inv. 0.4% m/m; range 0.3% to 0.4% (15 estimates)
• Wholesale Sales 0.5% m/m; range 0% to 0.6% (3 estimates)

To contact the reporters on this story: Jordan Yadoo in Washington at jyadoo@bloomberg.net; Vincent Del Giudice in Denver at vdelgiudice@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Alex Tanzi at atanzi@bloomberg.net Kristy Scheuble

(Bloomberg) -- The Mexican peso weakens in line with most Latam peers, while market impact from strongest earthquake in a century is seen as limited.

• MXN stays within 17.50-18.00 trading range
  • Overnight low at 17.7362 as peso sold off after reports of tremor; pared losses later
  • Currency and fixed-income markets are trading normally as of Friday morning, according to NY-based traders; earthquake will probably have minimal impact on financial markets
  • Temblor struck country’s less-developed southwest region and spared the capital city; nation’s biggest oil refinery isn’t damaged, Pemex says
• Citi favors local-currency bonds in select EM countries such as Russia and Mexico, where markets can price in more rate cuts
  • HSBC also expressed bullish view on EM local rates and maintained its long-duration bias via 10-year Mbonos early this week
• TIIE swap rates may extend drop after falling as much as 11bps on Thursday amid sinking U.S. yields and below-est August CPI
  • Traders are betting rates will decline further and more paying positions will probably be stopped out as prices move against them
• NOTE: George Lei is an FX strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and not intended as investment advice.
• Some information comes from FX traders familiar with the transactions who asked not to be identified because they are not authorized to speak publicly

To contact the reporter on this story: George Lei in New York at glei3@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Rita Nazareth at rnazareth@bloomberg.net Alec D.B. McCabe

(Bloomberg) -- BTIG sees improving fundamentals in the Apartment REIT sector amid moderating supply growth and "consistently firm" renter demand, analysts James Sullivan and Ami Probandt write in a note. The firm updated some estimates and raised some PTs.

• Boosts Mid-America Apartment Communities’ rating to buy from neutral, says co. is achieving a "smooth, accretive integration" of Post Properties portfolio; now sees 2018 per-share FFO $6.35 vs $6.31 previous estimate

• Raises AvalonBay PT to $215 from $200, says the co. has the strongest value-creation development pipeline in BTIG’s coverage

• Increases Camden PT to $106 from $90, assumes faster rate of recovery in the core Houston market

• Boosts Equity Residential 2018 estimate by a penny to $3.27

• Reduces UDR’s 2018 estimate $1.95 from $1.97, sees moderation of SSNOI growth

To contact the reporter on this story: Kristy Westgard in New York at kwestgard1@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Arie Shapira at ashapira3@bloomberg.net Will Daley

(Bloomberg) -- Treasury futures (TY1) technical levels in focus.

• Daily trend bias: Bullish
• Comment: Pokes above the medium-term resistance line at 127.21+, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci of 2H 2016 bear market; weekly close above here escalates topside risks ahead of potential weekend events related to Hurricane Irma and North Korea Founding Day
  • Resistance: 128-03+; 129.09+
  • Support: 127.15+; 127-08
• NOTE: Roll-adjusted by difference in GFUT
• NOTE: Sejul Gokal is a FICC technical strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice

To contact the reporter on this story: Sejul Gokal in London at sgokal1@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Ven Ram at vram1@bloomberg.net Anil Varma

(Bloomberg) -- Call options on Treasury futures extend richening and remain above puts into weekend risks related to Hurricane Irma and North Korea Founding Day.

• TY October calls (expiring two days after September Fed meeting) have remained bid amid UST short squeeze with U.S. rate hikes being effectively priced out this year; see chart here

• Straddle on 10-year swap rates with Monday expiry has breakeven of about 4.5bp vs 2.5bp on non-event risk days
• Pessimism is increasingly becoming stretched with the flatness of the Eurodollar curve pricing in the end of the business cycle; see chart here of ED2-ED8
• NOTE: See analysis here from June 14 indicating lower summer yields: Fed, skew and inflation cross- currents see lower summer yields
• NOTE: Tanvir Sandhu is an interest-rate and derivatives strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice

To contact the reporter on this story: Tanvir Sandhu in London at tsandhu17@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Ven Ram at vram1@bloomberg.net Anil Varma

(Bloomberg) -- Hires banks as joint bookrunners to arrange a fixed income breakfast meeting in Stockholm on Sept. 14.

• Senior unsecured issue will follow, subject to market conditions
• Information from person familiar with the matter, who is not authorized to speak publicly and asked not to be identified

To contact the reporter on this story: Leo Laikola in Helsinki at llaikola@bloomberg.net