Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- U.K.’s vote to leave EU jolts the market, rally exaggerated due to positioning, volatile markets could constrain Fed’s ability to tighten policy more this yr, analysts say.

• Wait to see how dust settles, Fed off the table for the year given shock to financial conditions underway; need to seriously consider what is the threshold for possible Fed rate cut (or some other accommodative action), writes RBS in a client note
  • USD OIS now pricing in ~20% chance of 25bp rate-cut across July-Nov. 2016; first hike pushed out first hike to 2018
• Response to U.K. leaving EU has been supercharged, as many traders, investors had so significantly misjudged the outcome of the vote, writes Triple T Consulting’s Sean Keane: MORE
• Expect some of the early flight to quality trade in USTs to dissipate during NY hours, writes Seaport Global’s Tom Digaloma in a client note
• Expected long-end to outperform given risk-off move, though was not the case, potentially due to better liquidity in TY futures; expect curve to flatten as risk stabilizes and trading activity improves, writes BMO in a client note
• Technicals:
  • Resistance: 134-07 day high
  • Support: 132-01, 61.8% fibo of day range; 131-20, June 20 high

(Bloomberg) -- Factory orders for durable goods seen falling 0.5% in May after rising 3.4% in April (forecast range -2.8% to +3.0%); based on value of orders received.

• April gain led by military aircraft; orders for business equipment were little changed
• “Lack of a significant improvement in orders is a stark reminder of the lingering impact from dollar strength amid slow global growth:” Bloomberg Intelligence

(Bloomberg) -- Lender was fined over money laundering allegations in carbon-emission tax case, person with knowledge of the matter said.

• Germany’s Bafin declines to comment
• Germany’s Der Spiegel reported the fine earlier on Friday
• NOTE: Feb. 25: Deutsche Bank Says German Regulator Closes Several Audits
• NOTE: June 13: Seven Ex-Deutsche Bank Managers Guilty in C02 Tax-Fraud Case