EM RISK TIMELINE: Credit Ratings, Brazil Politics, FOMC Risk
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)
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(Bloomberg) -- Emerging market investors may focus on the risk of a credit rating revision in South Africa and Brazil’s deep political quagmire. EM currencies are also contending with a strong dollar as U.S. Federal Reserve moves toward raising rates, possibly over summer. FOMC next meets on June 14-15.
MAIN RISKS
Alert: HALISTER1- CEEMA
- Risks skewed to downside for ZAR ahead of South Africa’s rating revision by S&P Global Ratings
- OPEC meeting in Vienna and Russian central bank decision are main events to watch this month for ruble
- Political developments remain in focus in Turkey where the new government is preparing the ground to introduce legal changes to strengthen the presidency
- Hungarian CPI eyed after central bank signaled in May the end of easing cycle citing inflation outlook
- Nigerian Naira non-deliverable forward contracts indicate that currency may depreciate significantly if central bank allows a more flexible exchange rate system after President Buhari’s go-ahead
- LATAM
- Brazilian markets remain at the mercy of Carwash probe, which still poses major risk as it advances toward members of new govt
- Acting president Temer already lost 2 ministers in less than a month to audio leak scandal and fresh content from plea bargain deals still haunts politicians
- Accurate gauge of new govt support in Congress likely to be seen when measures aimed to reduce fiscal deficit finally voted
- If measures pass with large margin, BRL traders may feel confident enough to push currency to fresh YTD highs
- While Colombia announced the end of its FX intervention mechanism last week, MXN traders still see risk of Mexico starting to sell USD even as both Banxico Governor Carstens and FinMin Videgaray said markets are still properly functioning
- Brazilian markets remain at the mercy of Carwash probe, which still poses major risk as it advances toward members of new govt
- ASIA
- USD/CNY may continue its steady climb towards 5-year high after China’s May PMI barely stayed in expansion territory. PBOC no intention of defending USD/CNY or USD/CNH at any level for now, says Mizuho Bank. Possibility of higher U.S. interest- rates may weigh more on yuan than readings from domestic economic data
- Singapore dollar could be a good defensive Asian currency for investors seeing a stronger greenback through the summer. The shift to a zero currency appreciation policy against a basket of currencies since April is working; click here for a chart of SGD versus key trading partners
- CALENDAR (based on local dates)
- June 1: Chile minutes
- June 2: South Korea 1Q GDP final; OPEC meeting in Vienna
- June 3: Malaysia trade balance; S&P South Africa rating revision; Turkey CPI
- June 4: Colombia Inflation
- June 6: Russia CPI; Chile IMACEC
- June 7: Taiwan exports; China foreign reserves; India central bank meeting; Malaysia foreign reserves; Hungarian IP
- June 8: China trade balance; Poland central bank meeting; Hungarian CPI; Brazil Inflation; Brazil rate decision; Chile CPI
- June 9: Korea central bank meeting; China CPI and PPI; South Africa Mfg production; Mexico CPI; Peru rate decision
- June 10: India IP; Russia central bank decision; Turkey current account balance; Turkey GDP; Colombia Minutes
- June 12: China IP;
- June 13: India CPI; Poland CPI
- June 15: Malaysia CPI; Russia GDP; South Africa retail sales
- June 16: Indonesia central bank meeting; Russia IP; Brazil minutes; Chile rate decision
- June 17: Singapore non-oil exports
- June 19: Turkish opposition MHP’s congress
- June 21: Malaysia foreign reserves; Turkey central bank rate decision; Hungary central bank decision
- June 22: Thailand central bank meeting; South Africa CPI; Colombia rate decision
- June 23: Singapore CPI; Philippines central bank meeting
- June 24: Singapore IP
- June 29: Brazil fiscal data
- June 30: Korea IP; Czech Republic Rate Announcement; Turkey trade balance
- NOTE: Davison Santana, Mark Cudmore and Mark Cranfield are strategists who write for Bloomberg. The observations they make are their own and are not intended as investment advice.
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)
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