HALISTER1: Turkey Police Detain 33 People in Anti-Gulenist Raids: AA

Turkey Police Detain 33 People in Anti-Gulenist Raids: AA

(Bloomberg) -- Raids conducted in Istanbul, Konya and Kirklareli provinces, state-run Anadolu Agency says.
  • Total number of suspects 65; charges include money laundering and violating laws on banking-terror finance
  • Raided addresses include 7 companies, 1 association
  • Anadolu says some suspects transferred money to other countries and laundered money in Bank Asya accounts
  • Suspects include Bank Asya’s former CEO
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
ASYAB TI (Asya Katilim Bankasi AS)

Topics
Religion

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: INSIDE G-10: JPY Slides; Abe Set to Postpone Sales Tax Hike

INSIDE G-10: JPY Slides; Abe Set to Postpone Sales Tax Hike

(Bloomberg) -- USD adds to Friday’s Yellen-inspired gains versus Aussie, Kiwi and Canadian dollars, while yen weakens further as benign retail sales data fuels speculation of delay to PM Abe’s tax hike.
  • USD/CNY fixing set at 6.5784, highest since February 2011
  • USD/JPY +0.74% at 111.13 vs 110.32-111.16 range
    • Driven higher ahead of Tokyo open on stop loss buying, momentum and leveraged flows: traders
    • Japan April retail sales -0.8% y/y vs est. -1.2%
    • Japan risks credit downgrade if sales-tax increase delayed by Abe without explaining plans to cut its deficit: WSJ
  • USD846m of option strikes expiring tomorrow at 111.00
  • AUD/USD -0.31% at 0.7160 vs 0.7149-0.7187 range
    • Australia HIA April new home sales -4.7% m/m vs March’s +8.9%
    • 1Q inventories rise 0.4% q/q versus estimate of unchanged; April private home sales fall 4.7% m/m
    • Options strikes expiring at 0.7200 include A$338m on May 31, A$376 on June 2 and A$441m June 3
  • NZD/USD -0.24% at 0.6685 vs 0.6676-0.6709 range
    • Near term support at 0.6656 200-DMA
    • 9.7% of farmers said they had faced “undue pressure” from their bank over their mortgage, up from about 8% in Feb.: survey
    • RBNZ foreign currency intervention capacity NZ$10.58b, up from NZ$10.35b a month earlier
  • EUR/USD -0.09% at 1.1105 vs 1.1098-1.1121 range
    • Leaning on 1.1098 200-DMA support, adjacent to EUR1.7b of put options expiring June 2
    • Today: Merkel, Juncker, Tusk Speak in Luxembourg: French GDP, German CPI
  • GBP/USD -0.04% to 1.4617 vs 1.4600-1.4631 range
    • Ladbrokes say, proportion of money wagered on Brexit over last 48 hours rises
  • USD/CAD +0.51% to 1.3088 vs 1.3006-1.3092 range
  • BBDXY +0.3% at 1,203.62
    • U.S. Treasury markets closed until futures open in Tokyo tomorrow due to U.K./U.S. holiday’s
  • Crude oil, gold drop; copper rises
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: INDIA GDP PREVIEW: Services Drive Recovery, May Spur RBI to Hold

INDIA GDP PREVIEW: Services Drive Recovery, May Spur RBI to Hold

(Bloomberg) -- India’s economy may continue to show gradual recovery as the services sector lead growth, economists say, adding that RBI will likely keep rates on hold when it meets June 7.
  • 1Q GDP growth est. 7.5% vs. 7.3% in prev; data due May 31 at 5.30pm local time
  • GVA growth, another measure which RBI closely monitors, is likely to grow 7.3% in 1Q vs 7.1% prior
  • RBI’s GVA growth projection for fiscal 2017 is at 7.6%
    • NOTE: GDP is equal to GVA plus taxes minus subsidies
  • USD/INR may trade between 50- and 100-DMA near term if 1Q GDP matches est.: Bloomberg analysis
  • Barclays (economists including Siddhartha Sanyal)
    • Economic activity continues to follow a path of gradual recovery
    • Services sector growth likely inched up in 1Q, offsetting softer growth in manufacturing and agriculture
    • Forecasts FY16 GDP growth of 7.5%; sees modest uptick to 7.8% in FY17; recovery could be uneven in coming quarters and occasional downside surprises can’t be ruled out
    • Broadly favorable economic parameters, larger-than- expected easing in April, will prompt RBI to stay on hold on June 7
  • Citi (Samiran Chakraborty & Anurag Jha)
    • 1Q GDP is likely to reinforce growth optimism
    • Real GVA growth is expected to improve to 7.8% in Jan- March, highest pace in six quarters
    • Agricultural output could surprise positively despite second year of inadequate rainfall
    • Services sector growth could largely stay unchanged given a pickup in financial services activity and govt expenditure
  • ANZ (Devika Mehndiratta)
    • Expect real GDP to have picked up to 7.8% y/y in 1Q with services sector likely to have led improvement; agriculture should also register positive growth
    • Fair bit of uncertainty remains about quarterly GDP results as these are based more on corporate financial results and less on observables such as industrial production growth
  • India Ratings & Research (Devendra Pant)
    • Agricultural GVA growth can surprise positively, despite the second consecutive year of sub-par monsoon, mainly due to the unseasonal rainfall during 4Q FY15
    • Industrial GVA growth is likely to have declined from 3Q FY16 level, but likely performed better than 4Q FY15; main support is driven by strong performance of electricity sector
  • Societe Generale (Jason Daw & Frances Cheung)
    • 1Q GDP should improve, maintaining INR’s favorite carry trade qualities
    • Long INR is not stretched and as such short SGD/INR is still attractive on macro and technical grounds
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Anurag Jha (Citigroup Inc)
Devendra Pant (Fitch Ratings Ltd)
Devika Mehndiratta (Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd)
Frances Cheung (Societe Generale SA)
Jason Daw (Societe Generale SA)

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HALISTER1: INDIA RATINGS: Eimco Elecon, Krishi Rasayan Cut

INDIA RATINGS: Eimco Elecon, Krishi Rasayan Cut

(Bloomberg) -- Here’s a roundup of Indian co. debt-rating changes.
  • To get this story sent to your inbox real-time, run NI INRATINGS , click on Display & Edit, then Set Alert Delivery
DOWNGRADES
  • Eimco Elecon
    • Long-term loan facilities cut to A+ from AA- at Crisil
    • Expects scale operations to remain modest over the medium term due to the continued sluggishness in demand for equipment from underground coal mining industry
  • Krishi Rasayan
    • LT loan facilities cut to BBB from BBB+ at Crisil
    • Expects financial-risk profile to remain subdued over the medium term due to leveraged capital structure
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
EEI IN (Eimco Elecon India Ltd)
1075746D IN (Krishi Rasayan)

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HALISTER1: INSIDE ASIA: Asian Currencies Fall After Yellen’s Rate Comments

INSIDE ASIA: Asian Currencies Fall After Yellen’s Rate Comments

(Bloomberg) -- Asian currencies decline, led by the won and ringgit, after Fed’s Yellen late Friday said a rate hike may be appropriate in coming months; China sets yuan reference rate at weakest since Feb. 2011.
  • EM Asian currencies likely to remain susceptible to concerns over Fed tightening and weaken against the dollar in coming weeks, Qi Gao, FX strategist at Scotiabank, writes in note today
    • Sees a Fed increase in July more likely; NOTE: currently 53.8% probability of July hike, according to Fed Funds futures
  • Dollar Index advances, set for two straight days of gains
  • MSCI Asia Pacific index falls 0.3%; Brent crude oil prices rise 0.1%
    • Yen touches lowest since April 28 on talk of sales-tax delay and fiscal stimulus; PM Abe to delay tax hike to 2019, Nikkei reports, citing unidentified sources; plans up to $90.7b stimulus
    • USD/JPY rallies on momentum, leveraged stop-loss buying, according to Asia-based FX traders
    • April retail sales unchanged m/m vs est. -0.6%, +1.5% in March
  • Yuan slides 0.25%, most since Feb. 3, as PBOC weakens fixing by 0.45% to 6.5784 per dollar; offshore yuan also lower
    • USD/CNH seeing broad-based buying, FX traders in North Asia say
    • Risk of defaults looms over China’s $3.6t market for wealth management products
    • Authorities to study disclosure, credit rating systems for foreign bond issuers to facilitate their bond sales in China, according to article written by PBOC Deputy Governor Pan Gongsheng in Caixin Weekly magazine
    • Goldman Sachs sees end of yuan “sweet spot” spurring fund outflows
  • Malaysia ringgit falls, set to snap three days of gain
    • Wahid Omar to leave cabinet on June 4: PM Najib
    • BNM has lodged police report against WSJ for revealing confidential documents, Najib says
  • Indonesia rupiah drops, set to snap three-day gains
    • BI to issue rule on money markets soon to become legal umbrella for all money-market instruments, says Nanang Hendarsah, head of financial market development
  • Korean won hardest hit Asian currency, falling 1.0% to 1,190.90 Monday following three straight days of gains last week
    • Manufacturers’ business confidence for June rises to 74, highest in a year, from 73 for May
  • Thai baht set for two straight days of losses
    • 1Q unemployment rose to 0.97% y/y from 0.94%, NESDB says
  • Taiwan dollar drops
    • Taiwan to allow securities firms to provide business in trading TWD spot and derivatives, Commercial Times reports, citing chairman of Taiwan Securities Association
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Pan Gongsheng (People's Bank Of China)
Qi Gao (Bank of Nova Scotia/The)

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HALISTER1: USD/INR May Consolidate Between 50-DMA, 100-DMA on GDP: Analysis

USD/INR May Consolidate Between 50-DMA, 100-DMA on GDP: Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- USD/INR may trade between 50- and 100-DMA near term if India’s 1Q GDP matches est., Bloomberg strategist David Finnerty writes.
  • India 1Q GDP is forecast to rise 7.5% y/y compared to 7.3% in 4Q, according to median est. in Bloomberg survey; data due May 31 at 5:30 pm local time
  • If GDP matches or beats est., it would confirm economy continues to expand at a growing pace, which should support INR and help offset recent hawkish comments from U.S. FOMC members
  • USD/INR’s slow stochastics have turned bearish as they retreat from overbought territory with initial support at 50-DMA (currently 66.7236); pair closed at 67.035 on Friday
  • USD/INR’s decline maybe halted if U.S. jobs data beats forecast, raising probability of a Fed hike this summer
    • U.S. May non-farm payrolls due June 3, est. 160K vs prev. 160K
  • NOTE: David Finnerty is an FX strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice.
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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