BRAZIL PREVIEW: 2Q GDP Seen Stable; Consumption May Be Good News
(Bloomberg) -- 2Q GDP to show zero q/q growth, while consumption should partially offset worse agribusiness performance, analysts say.
- Quality of GDP results should be better in 2Q than in 1Q, since private consumption will grow for the first time in 9 quarters, Goldman Sachs Senior Economist for LatAm Alberto Ramos says by phone
- Expectation of a recovery in consumption is also highlighted by Icatu Chief Economist Rodrigo Melo and SulAmerica Investimentos Chief Economist Newton Rosa
- Household deleveraging process is more advanced than corporate, Rosa says, pointing out that retail sales are showing impact in consumption
- Labor market and credit are showing some improvement, which helps support the economy, Rosenberg e Associados Chief Economist Thais Zara says
- 2Q data has been positive, with marginal growth in industry and services, Haitong Senior Economist Flavio Serrano says
- Summing up, while 1Q GDP growth was bigger, it was too dependent on agribusiness, while 2Q growth should be lower, but with a more leveled performance across sectors, Rabobank Strategist for Brazil Mauricio Oreng says, adding that recovery will be gradual
- A flat performance in 2Q confirms that political crisis started in May didn’t have a big impact in economic activity, Credit Agricole EM Strategist Italo Lombardi says
To contact the reporters on this story: Vinícius Andrade in São Paulo at vandrade3@bloomberg.net; Josue Leonel in Sao Paulo at jleonel@bloomberg.net; Ana Carolina Siedschlag in São Paulo at asiedschlag@bloomberg.net
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HALISTER1Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)
People Alberto Ramos (Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The)
Flavio Serrano (Haitong Bank SA)
Italo Lombardi (Credit Agricole SA)
Mauricio Oreng (Banco Rabobank International Brasil SA)
Newton Rosa (Sul America Cia Nacional de Seguros)
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