Yuan Bears Testing Water Again, Painful Memory Remains: SocGen
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)
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(Bloomberg) -- Investors are tentatively adding back bearish yuan bets after being hurt on such positions earlier in the year, according to Societe Generale’s Asia Pacific head of flow strategy and solutions.
Alert: HALISTER1- Exposure is much smaller this time; yuan depreciation will likely be gradual and market volatility limited for rest of year, Andrew Scott said in interview this week
- Forward points and implied volatility have collapsed across maturity buckets
- Investors are expressing risk via call spreads, so they can capture the trend if USD/CNH moves higher but aren’t exposed to move in other direction
- To partially fund call-spread strategies, clients can sell downside strikes, especially in and around 6.40 & 6.30
- NOTE: USD/CNH up 0.05% to 6.5617 vs this year’s high at 6.7618 on Jan. 7
- Offshore yuan rose 3%, from 6.7618 to 6.5604 vs dollar, in space of one week in Jan. as PBOC squeezed bears by mopping up liquidity
- NOTE: CNH 12-month forward points have fallen from 3,900 in Jan. to 1,629 today; USD/CNH 1-mo. implied vol down from as high as 10.23% in Feb. to 4.19% today
- NOTE: Yuan Bears Once Compared to Soros in His Prime Now Look Subdued
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)
To de-activate this alert, click here
UUID: 7947283