HALISTER1: Aberdeen Keeps TRY Shorts, Plans to Add More If Rally Continues

Aberdeen Keeps TRY Shorts, Plans to Add More If Rally Continues

(Bloomberg) -- Aberdeen Asset Management will use any TRY rally to add to existing short positions as lira gains seen short-lived, portfolio manager Viktor Szabo says in interview.
  • “If the rally in Turkish lira continues, we would look to add to short positions rather than anything else,” says Szabo
  • Lira’s rally “understandable” as market had priced in some chances of Simsek not being reappointed as deputy PM
    • Positioning also light, favoring TRY rally while central bank rate cut was in line with expectations
  • Investors pleased with Simsek reappointment as they assume that as long as he is there, there won’t be any major deterioration in country’s fiscal balances
    • However, Simsek is “basically alone” in new government and it’s unlikely he will have an “easy job”
  • While changing the constitution is the main point on the new government’s agenda now, as soon as that’s done focus will move to the economy; pressure on central bank to cut rates more aggressively may increase under the new government, paving way for TRY weakness
  • That said, TRY remains a high-yielder currency and its trend will also depend on global environment
  • In EM space, Aberdeen likes BRL, Argentina peso and keeps some long RUB after having reduced them a bit; says ZAR remains too volatile and unpredictable given political risk
  • NOTE: Aberdeen Asset Management had AUM of GBP290.5b as of Dec. 2015, according to firm’s website
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
ADN LN (Aberdeen Asset Management PLC)

People
Viktor Szabo (Aberdeen Asset Management PLC)
Mehmet Simsek (Republic of Turkey)

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HALISTER1: Fade Stretched Belgium Bond Outperformance vs Netherlands: Citi

Fade Stretched Belgium Bond Outperformance vs Netherlands: Citi

(Bloomberg) -- Prefer AAA/Aaa Netherlands vs AA/Aa3 Belgium given the spread is now at the tight end of the 2-year range, Citigroup strategists including Peter Goves write in client note.
  • Buy DSL 2.25% July 2022 vs OLO 4.25% Sept. 2022 at 5bp; target 14bp, stop 0bp
  • Strong rally in 6Y Belgium has driven spreads to DSLs into low single digits
  • At such levels, moves are looking a little over done both in terms of trading ranges and fundamentals
  • Risks include unexpected DSL supply in the belly of the curve or upgrades of the Belgian sovereign that might fundamentally justify a tighter spread
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Peter Goves (Citigroup Inc)

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