Brazil’s Goldfajn Seen More Likely to Cut in August: Analysts
(Bloomberg) -- Brazil DI markets increase bets that BCB may start a rate-cut cycle at August 31 meeting as Ilan Goldfajn, nominated as new governor this week, may await a clearer slowing trend for inflation, analysts say.
- Until previous week, swap markets were forecasting rate cutting more likely to start as soon as July
- BCB may await 2017 CPI forecasts to improve further and for the government to outline fiscal measures, Sergio Goldenstein, partner at Flag Asset Management says in phone interview
- BCB models aren’t yet likely to show 2017 inflation meeting the 4.5% yearly target, Solange Srour, chief-economist at ARX Investimentos says
- Potential U.S. Fed hike also may lead BCB to postpone rates cut as a weaker BRL may impact inflation, Pablo Spyer, director at Mirae Asset Wealth Management says
- Markets see Goldfajn policy as BCB governor not as dovish as his views when he was a chief economist at Itau, Spyer says
Alert:
HALISTER1Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)
People Ilan Goldfajn (Banco Central do Brasil)
Pablo Spyer (Mirae Asset Global Investments)
Sergio Goldenstein (Flag Asset Management Gestora de Recursos Ltda)
Solange Srour (Arx Investimentos)
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