HALISTER1: U.K. April Retail Sales Ex-Fuel Due in 5 Mins; Est. M/m 0.6%

U.K. April Retail Sales Ex-Fuel Due in 5 Mins; Est. M/m 0.6%

(Bloomberg) -- U.K. April retail sales ex-auto fuel m/m est. 0.6% vs prev -1.6%.
  • U.K. April retail sales ex-auto fuel y/y est. 2.0% vs prev 1.8%
  • U.K. April retail sales incl-auto fuel m/m est. 0.6% vs prev -1.3%
  • U.K. April retail sales incl-auto fuel y/y est. 2.5% vs prev 2.7%
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

To de-activate this alert, click here

UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: SEK Brexit Hedges Most Attractive in Europe FX, Cr. Suisse Says

SEK Brexit Hedges Most Attractive in Europe FX, Cr. Suisse Says

(Bloomberg) - USD/SEK risk reversals and implied volatility are a more attractive way to hedge for a ’Brexit’ scenario than EUR/USD, Credit Suisse analysts write in client note
  • Recommends buying USD/SEK 2-mo. 8.6372 strike 15d call
  • Hedging for the U.K. voting to ‘leave’ by directly buying GBP puts is expensive and short EUR/USD offers a cheaper Brexit hedge than GBP/USD, but the EUR/USD risk reversal skew makes it difficult to see EUR/USD as a ‘leave’ trade that isn’t already well owned
  • EUR/USD trades more attractive for a ‘remain’ vote; favor buying a EUR/USD 2-mo. 1.1669 strike 25d call
  • Credit analysts are reluctant to trade the referendum as an independent risk factor unless the GBP credit market shows cheapness again
    • Regardless of outcome it will add to the general uncertainty in the market as the result will likely continue to impact U.K. politics, with the possibility of leadership contests or party challenges
  • Earlier: C. Suisse suggests long FTSE 100 vs FTSE 250 as Brexit hedge in stocks; referendum already impacting the U.K. economy
  • NOTE: FX implied correlations underprice the risk-off implications of a Brexit
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

To de-activate this alert, click here

UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: Aberdeen Remain USD Bulls, Will Buy Asia FX if Valuation Cheap

Aberdeen Remain USD Bulls, Will Buy Asia FX if Valuation Cheap

(Bloomberg) -- Aberdeen Asset Management will resume buying Asia’s currencies when valuations are cheaper, Leong Lin Jing, investment manager at the fund which overseess $4b in Asian fixed income assets, says in interview.
  • Aberdeen remains dollar bull for May and June
  • Market was not adequately pricing in Fed rate hikes
  • Sees first U.S. rate rise in Sept.
    • “We have a confluence of global risk events going into June like Brexit, OPEC meeting and elections,” says Leong
  • High-beta currencies IDR, MYR and KRW are most susceptible to an emerging market selloff
    • Korea’s national pension fund is raising overseas investment which will make KRW more volatile
    • Bearish on MYR on govt’s off-balance debt
      • IDR and Indonesian bonds currently expensive; will “look at them” in sell-off
  • PBOC may allow yuan to appreciate slightly against CFETS basket as it was depreciating the currency vs basket earlier when Asian currencies were appreciating
  • Aberdeen is most overweight in India among Asian govt bond positions
    • Duration has been shortened to 5-7 year from 15-year plus segment
    • “We have cut duration as we do not see immediate visibility for (an RBI) rate cut soon and have pretty big supplies coming up in July,” says Leong
  • Aberdeen is also overweight on Korean bonds on expectations of further rate easing
  • Most underweight on Singapore and Hong Kong bonds because of link to U.S. Treasuries
  • Oil prices won’t be an issue from an inflationary perspective until it hits $60/bbl
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Lin Leong (Aberdeen Asset Management PLC)

To de-activate this alert, click here

UUID: 7947283

HALISTER: Cryan Must Shrink Deutsche Bank Back to Health, Investor Says

Cryan Must Shrink Deutsche Bank Back to Health, Investor Says

Alert: HALISTER
Source: BN (Bloomberg News)

Tickers
DBK GR (Deutsche Bank AG)

People
John Cryan (Deutsche Bank AG)
Alfred Herling (Deutsche Bank AG)
Anshu Jain (Social Finance Inc)
Georg Thoma (Shearman & Sterling LLP)
Ingo Speich (Union Investment Privatfonds GmbH/Germany)

To de-activate this alert, click here
To modify this alert, click here

UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: Singapore Court Extends Detention of Ex-BSI Banker to May 24

Singapore Court Extends Detention of Ex-BSI Banker to May 24

(Bloomberg) -- Remand for former BSI SA private banker Yeo Jiawei extended to May 24, Singapore court rules Thursday.
  • Yeo in remand for 33 days so far; detention previously extended to today
  • Prosecutor Kwek Mean Luck says investigations, which deal with international money laundering, remain “on track”
  • Yeo has made attempts to mask and suppress evidence of money flows in and out of Singapore: Kwek
  • NOTE: Yeo faces seven charges, including money laundering and cheated, arising from a 1MDB related probe {FIFW NSN O726QM6KLVRT }
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
0206021D MK (1Malaysia Development Bhd)
BBTG11 BZ (BTG Pactual Group)

To de-activate this alert, click here

UUID: 7947283

HALISTER: Mack, Disrupted: How Wall Street Waltzed LendingClub Into Crisis

Mack, Disrupted: How Wall Street Waltzed LendingClub Into Crisis

Alert: HALISTER
Source: BN (Bloomberg News)

Tickers
MS US (Morgan Stanley)
LC US (LendingClub Corp)
JEF US (Jefferies Group LLC)

People
John MacK (BKM Capital Partners LP)
Andrew Hallowell (Mzinga Inc)
Arthur Samberg (JetSuite Inc)
David Goldberg (SurveyMonkey.com LLC)
Jeff Bogan (LendingClub Corp)

To de-activate this alert, click here
To modify this alert, click here

UUID: 7947283

HALISTER: Israel’s $27 Billion Drug Problem Leaves Stocks Near Bear Market

Israel’s $27 Billion Drug Problem Leaves Stocks Near Bear Market

Alert: HALISTER
Source: BN (Bloomberg News)

Tickers
MYL US (Mylan NV)
OPK US (OPKO Health Inc)
PRGO US (Perrigo Co PLC)
TEVA IT (Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd)

People
Yaniv Pagot (Ayalon Group Ltd)
Yossi Beinart (Tel-Aviv Stock Exchange)

Topics
Market Structure

To de-activate this alert, click here
To modify this alert, click here

UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: AUCTION PREVIEW: Decent Curve Concession on 3Y, 5Y France

AUCTION PREVIEW: Decent Curve Concession on 3Y, 5Y France

(Bloomberg) -- France to sell 0.0% 02/2019, 0.0% 05/2021 for EU5.5b-6.5b at 10:50am CET; also to sell I/L bonds for EU1.2b-1.7b at 11:50am CET. Analysts highlight concession for both bonds on the curve, value vs Belgium.
  • Mizuho (Antoine Bouvet)
    • 5Y OAT yields have been stable above –0.18bps level, suggests little outright appetite to buy below here
    • Sector has underperformed on the curve, looks attractive in RV vs 3Y, 7Y sectors
    • Yields on 2019 have been rising to above ECB depo rate, raising prospect of better outright demand; bond has also lagged on the French fitted curve
  • Citi (Puja Sawant)
    • 3Y looks cheap within a rich sector; compared to peers has cheapened significantly since auction announcement
    • OAT 10/2019 is richest bond vs fitted OAT curve, outperforming auction bond by over 3bps in last three weeks, spread now attractive at 2bps
    • 5Y has cheapened vs peers fly over past month; sector looks cheap vs fitted curve, especially on 3s5s7s fly
    • Cross market, 5Y France has cheapened vs Belgium over past month, looks cheap over a 6-month history; switch to OAT 05/2021s from OLO 09/2021s looks attractive
  • SocGen (Marc-Henri Thoumin)
    • 2021 sector offers some value relative, 2019/2021/2023 OAT fly looks high ahead of auction, expect better demand for this bond
    • OAT 2019 offers good pick-up vs OLOs, expect some convergence after the auction
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Antoine Bouvet (Mizuho Financial Group Inc)
Marc-Henri Thoumin (Societe Generale SA)
Puja Sawant (Citigroup Inc)

To de-activate this alert, click here

UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: Better Taiwan Export Orders May Halt USD/TWD NDF Rally: Analysis

Better Taiwan Export Orders May Halt USD/TWD NDF Rally: Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- USD/TWD 1-mo. NDF could fail to breach 100-DMA resistance if Taiwan’s export orders decline less than expected in April, Bloomberg strategist Andrew Robinson writes.
  • Orders probably dropped 4.5% y/y following a 4.7% decline in March, median est. in Bloomberg survey shows
    • That would mark the 13th straight month of contraction
    • Ests. range from -9.2% to -2.4%; data due 4pm local time tomorrow
  • Export orders fell less-than-expected in March, the second month in a row that it beat est., according to data released April 20
    • USD/TWD 1-mo. NDF gained 0.3% that day to close at 32.199
  • 1-mo. NDF now at 32.784; touched 32.861 yesterday, highest level since March 11; 100-DMA is at 32.864 today
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

To de-activate this alert, click here

UUID: 7947283

HALISTER: Bayer, Covestro Fall After Monsanto Says Has Received Proposal

Bayer, Covestro Fall After Monsanto Says Has Received Proposal

(Bloomberg) -- Bayer falls as much as 7%, most since Aug. 24, on 37% of the avg. 3-mo. daily volume after Monsanto said it had received a non-binding proposal from Bayer.
  • Covestro falls as much as 3.6%, most since May 12, on 13% of the avg. 3-mo. daily volume
    • Bayer is the largest holder in Covestro with 69.1% as of a filing dates Feb. 5
  • NOTE: On April 26, Bayer CFO had said is evaluating all options for Covestro Stake Sale
RELATED:
  • May 12: Bayer Said to Explore Bid for $40b Seed Company Monsanto
Alert: HALISTER
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
BAYN GR (Bayer AG)
1COV GR (Covestro AG)
MON US (Monsanto Co)
SEED ZH (Seed Co)

Topics
Plastics

To de-activate this alert, click here

UUID: 7947283