HALISTER: Inside the Murdoch Makeover of National Geographic

Inside the Murdoch Makeover of National Geographic

Alert: HALISTER
Source: BN (Bloomberg News)

Tickers
NWSA US (News Corp)

People
James Murdoch (Twenty-First Century Fox Inc)
Keith Murdoch (Twenty-First Century Fox Inc)
David Lyle (Natl Geographic Channels)
Gary Knell (National Geographic Society)
John Fahey (National Geographic Society)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: BCB’s Goldfajn in April Warned of FX Market ‘Euphoria’

BCB’s Goldfajn in April Warned of FX Market ‘Euphoria’

(Bloomberg) -- New BCB President Ilan Goldfajn’s economic views are well known; other than being responsible for Itau’s reports, Goldfajn has written regular commentaries for Globo and Estado newspapers, including one in April that said “this is not the time” for FX “euphoria.”
  • Following are some of Goldfajn comments from the “Euphoria Amid Crisis” article published in Estado on April 5:
  • FX: “This is not the time to allow FX appreciation. This is the time to go against the tide, buying USD (by cutting BCB’s outstanding FX swap position), since the market wants to unwind it. It is not a moment to allow market euphoria, which comes from a temporary international context, tied to fragile local optimism, based on very uncertain scenarios, with significant difficulties of implementation. BCB is correct to act in the opposite direction”
  • Inflation: “Amid the absence of extreme policies, the most likely scenario is that inflation keeps dropping. We have already seen current inflation drop and short-term price expectations signal a continuation in the near future”
    • “The reason for disinflation is simple: there aren’t inflationary forces in the system. The worst recession in history - and the consequent strong drop of sales - removed the capacity of the economy to adjust prices”
  • Rates: “At a certain time, probably still sometime this year, BCB should reduce interest rates, confirming the trajectory of dropping inflation. But there is no case to cut rates immediately (in the 1st half) to avoid allowing exaggerated optimism in the market. It is important to assure that disinflation comes first”
  • NOTE: Goldman Sachs in a e-mailed note said that the new appointments to Brazil’s economic team bring to the Temer administration “respected, well-trained technocrats with very rich and valuable experience in both the private and public sectors”
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Ilan Goldfajn (Itau Unibanco SA)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: ECB PGB, IRISH QE Buying Above Target Even as Pace Slows: UBS

ECB PGB, IRISH QE Buying Above Target Even as Pace Slows: UBS

(Bloomberg) -- QE purchases of Portuguese and Irish govt bonds are running ahead of the target implied by the capital key even after the April slowdown in the pace of purchases, Nishay Patel and Justin Knight write in client note.
  • Eurosystem buying of Portuguese debt was 4% more between March 2015 and March 2016 and slowed to 1.7% above target since April
  • For Irish bonds, the purchases are still 4% higher
  • Should the issuer limit be reached, possibly by the end of the year for PGBs, it could lead to substitute purchases, something the ECB has repeatedly said are allowed under the legal act
  • NOTE: ECB limited its purchases of Portuguese, Irish govt bonds because of concerns it would reach its limits, Reuters said yday, citing unidentified central banking sources
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
2539Z GR (European Central Bank)
1174Z PL (Portuguese Republic)

People
Justin Knight (UBS Global Asset Management Japan Ltd)
Nishay Patel (UBS Global Asset Management Japan Ltd)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER: AIG’s Tom Russo Exits After Settling Probes, Suits as Legal Head

AIG’s Tom Russo Exits After Settling Probes, Suits as Legal Head

Alert: HALISTER
Source: BN (Bloomberg News)

Tickers
AIG US (American International Group Inc)

People
Peter Hancock (American International Group Inc)
Thomas Russo (American International Group Inc)
Anastasia Kelly (DLA Piper LLP)
Maurice Greenberg (CV Starr & Co Inc)
Robert Benmosche (American International Group Inc)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: TAG Immobilien Rises, Deutsche Bank Starts Coverage at Hold

TAG Immobilien Rises, Deutsche Bank Starts Coverage at Hold

(Bloomberg) -- TAG Immobilien shares rise as much as 4%, the most in 2 months, on volume that’s 90% of the 3-month average. Deutsche Bank initiated coverage of the stock earlier Tuesday with a hold rating and target price of EU12.
  • Deutsche Bank says almost half of debt book can be refinanced over next 3 years, potentially cutting cost of debt by ~70bps
  • Co. outperformed most peers last year with 3.3% LFL top-line growth, of which 1.6% came from rental growth and 1.7% from vacancy reduction: Deutsche Bank
    • Doesn’t expect rents to grow more, owing to structurally weaker locations and limited modernization upside
    • Still, increased capex could help with vacancy reduction
    • Deutsche Bank sees 50bps vacancy reduction annually until 2018, helping average top-line growth to ~2% a year
    • Sees risk of div. cut if sales proceeds don’t deliver enough cash flow, and says high leverage could lead to structurally higher cost of debt in downturn
DATA
  • Stock has risen 5.1% month-to-date vs a 0.8% rise in the Stoxx 600 Real Estate index; is up 6% YTD vs a 2.5% fall in the SX86P index
  • Of 15 analyst ratings, 4 are buys, 7 holds and 4 sells, with an average PT of EU11.5 implying ~-5% downside
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
TEG GR (TAG Immobilien AG)

Topics
Key Comm. Real Estate News

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UUID: 7947283