Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- PBOC unlikely to ease monetary policy near-term after series of disappointing April data, though deceleration in activity could pressure yuan, OCBC economist Tommy Xie says.

• Credit growth not as weak as numbers suggest; at least 350b yuan swapped in program to swap high-cost local govt debt for cheaper municipal bonds, while new VAT regulation also distorted figure: Xie
• Knowledge of April slowdown in credit growth probably reason front-page editorial in People’s Daily last week called for reforms
• Decline in economic activity could pressure yuan, with continued slowdown in private sector a key concern; growth in sector needed for sustainable Chinese recovery
• CNH-CNY spread is signal of yuan pressure; won’t be as volatile as Jan. as PBOC anchors vs currency basket when dollar strengthens
• Fed probably hike in Sept., though not ruling out July
• NOTE: PBOC said over weekend would maintain prudent monetary policy and create appropriate environment to facilitate steady economic growth
• April new loans at 555.6b yuan vs 800b yuan est. and 1.37t in March; aggregate financing at 751b yuan vs 1.30t yuan est. and 2.34t yuan in March
  • April industrial production, retail sales and fixed- asset investment all missed ests.

(Bloomberg) -- A weak global environment will probably keep Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports under pressure in April, judging by economists’ forecasts.

• Exports probably fell 7.9% y/y following a 15.6% decline the previous month, median est. in Bloomberg survey shows; if confirmed it will be fifth month of contraction in past six
  • Estimates range from -10.0% to -1.0%; data due 8:30am local time tomorrow
  • Island’s electronics exports fell 5.8% y/y last month from -9.1% in March, according to a separate survey
• Singapore 1Q GDP growth was flat compared with previous three months, data released on April 14 showed; MAS responded by easing monetary stance that day by moving to zero currency appreciation in its trade-weighted basket
  • SGD fell 0.9% to 1.3507 per dollar that day, though finished the month up 0.3%; the currency has risen 3.3% so far this year, now at 1.3716

(Bloomberg) -- Here’s a roundup of Indian co. debt-rating changes.

• To get this story sent to your inbox real-time, run NI INRATINGS , click on Display & Edit, then Set Alert Delivery

DOWNGRADES

• Manaksia Industries
  • Long-term bank facilities cut to A- from A at Care
  • Cites deterioration in financial performance

• MB Power
  • LT bank facilities cut to BB+ from BBB- at Care
  • Cites delay in commissioning of thermal power project

• Pee Aar International
  • Short-term loan facilities cut to D from A4+ at Crisil
  • Cites delays in meeting interest obligation on bank debt

UPGRADES

• Chandana Brothers Multicomplex
  • LT loan facilities raised to BBB- from BB- at Crisil
  • Cites steady cash flows from operations, debt-free balance sheet

• Great White Global
  • LT bank facilities raised to BBB from BBB- at Care
  • Cites improved financial performance

--BEN SCENT

(Bloomberg) -- Asian currencies mixed, with Thai baht and Chinese yuan among gainers, while Korean won leads declines following dollar rally on strong U.S. retail sales.

• Japanese yen and Malaysian ringgit also lower vs dollar
• Asian EM currencies are under slight downward pressure due to firmer dollar, says Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ analyst Teppei Ino; however doesn’t see trend for weakness, expects Asian EM currencies to be resilient for now
• Dollar Index up 0.03% following 0.9% gain Thursday-Friday
• Baht rises after falling every day last week; currency extends gains after Thai 1Q GDP beats forecast, growing 3.2% y/y vs 2.8% in 4Q and 2.8% est.
• Won falls to weakest in two months
  • S. Korea’s National Pension Service aims to increase overseas investment to more than 35% of total assets by end-2021 from 24.3% last yr: Ministry of Health and Welfare
  • President Park appoints Lee Won-Jong as chief of staff
• Ringgit weakens for second day; SocGen says go long on 7-yr Malaysia bonds, pay 7-yr MYR NDIRS
  • Federal cabinet to be restructured in near future, PM Najib says over weekend
• Philippine peso little changed
  • Central bank deputy governor Guinigundo says interest- rate corridor very wide and asymmetric; BSP to introduce term deposit auction facility and annnounce rate corridor numbers this afternoon
  • March overseas remittances data due today; est. +1.1% y/y vs +9.1% in Feb.
• China’s yuan rises; PBOC cuts yuan fixing to weakest since March 3, by 0.15% to 6.5343 per dollar; data over weekend missed ests.; China stocks extend decline
  • April industrial output rose 6.0% y/y vs est. 6.5%; retail sales rose 10.1% vs est. 10.6%; Jan.-April fixed- asset investment excluding rural households up 10.5% vs est. 11.0%
  • China CFETS RMB Index rose 0.37 point on-week to 96.98 as of May 13
• Yen falls; Prime Minister Abe says fiscal measures may be needed to create demand; Nikkei reported Saturday that Abe will postpone sales tax increase
  • BOJ Governor Kuroda to appear at parliament committee
  • April PPI fell 4.2% y/y in April vs est. -3.7% y/y
• Indonesia rupiah declines before April trade balance, est. $168m, prior $497m; exports; est. -10.90% y/y, prior -13.51%; imports est. -8.67%, prior -10.41%

Economic Release Details: {THG PQY Index ECOD} --TONY JORDAN

(Bloomberg) -- Makes new settlement offer to main lender State Bank of India and willing to return to answer questions if assured of safety and freedom, the Economic Times reports, citing Kiran Mazumdar-Shaw and other board members of United Breweries Ltd.

• Board met in Mumbai on Friday, with Mallya logging in from London
• Mallya tells board he has been wrongly accused of money laundering and there’s no evidence to justify allegation
• Enforcement Directorate seeking to extradite Vijay Mallya from the UK