Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- BOE’s view of Inflation 2 and 3 years ahead is little changed from February Inflation Report, suggesting a slow normalization if the U.K. votes to remain in the June 23 referendum, Deutsche Bank economist George Buckley writes in e-mailed comments.

• NOTE: BOE cut its growth forecasts and issued its strongest warning yet a vote to leave the EU would hurt the economy

(Bloomberg) -- Kohl’s 1Q adj. EPS 31c, est. 37c (range 34c-43c). KSS down 4.4% pre-mkt.

• 1Q net sales $3.97b, est. $4.13b (range $4.10b-$4.16b)
• 1Q comp. sales -3.9% vs est. +0.4% (Consensus Metrix, avg of 19)
• Ended quarter with 1,167 stores in 49 states vs 1,164 stores at same time last year
• KSS doesn’t provide updated forecast
• Call 8:30am (800) 230-1074, pw 386534
• NOTE: JCP reports pre-mkt tomorrow
• NOTE: Yday,: Macy’s Cuts Yr EPS, Comp. Sales View; 1Q Comps. Trail

Statement: NSN O72980MEWG76

(Bloomberg) -- BOE bank rate est. 0.5% vs prev 0.5%.

• BOE asset purchase target est. GBP375b vs prev GBP375b
• The Bank of England publishes minutes of the meeting showing how each Monetary Policy Committee member voted at the same time, as well as their quarterly Inflation Report with new forecasts
• Governor Mark Carney gives a press conference at 12:30 pm London time
• NOTE: Brexit Dominates Agenda as Bank of England Unveils New Forecasts
• NOTE: Yday -- BOE PREVIEW: Brexit May Keep MPC United But Risk of Split Seen

(Bloomberg) -- The BOE will simultaneously publish its rate decision and minutes at noon London time. Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference 30 minutes later.

• NOTE: For analyst views, see the research roundup
• Key questions include:

HOW SPLIT WAS THE VOTE?

• Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect an 9-0 vote to leave rates unchanged
• While domestic data has been weaker and markets are pricing a little less than 50% chance of a rate cut this year, few think the more dovish rate-setters Gertjan Vlieghe and Andy Haldane will vote for a rate reduction so soon before the Brexit vote

WHAT DID THE MPC SAY ABOUT BREXIT?

• Carney has said the vote on EU membership is a big risk and the economy’s apparent slowing is probably related to that
• Any clarity on whether Brexit or the global backdrop is responsible for weakening data may be used as a gauge of how likely the MPC thinks a 2H rebound will be, should the U.K. vote to stay in the Union

WHAT CARNEY SAYS ABOUT THE DIRECTION OF THE NEXT RATE MOVE?

• While slowing growth suggests the minutes are more likely than not to be dovish, they are still expected to say that the Bank’s next move is more likely to be a rate rise

WHAT DOES THE BANK SAY ABOUT STERLING ?

• GBP is trading a touch weaker vs dollar than in the run-up to the last Inflation Report, when the pound had fallen sharply
• Carney said then this would boost trade
• This time around, people will be looking for any clue on how the Bank would respond to further pound weakness in the event of Brexit, given gilt markets remain divided on the BOE’s reaction function

WHERE DOES THE BANK SEE INFLATION IN 2 YEARS AND IN 3 YEARS?

• The majority of analysts expect an even larger overshoot this month at the 3-year point, based on market rate expectations; but the tone of the meeting will likely offset that

ANY FURTHER INSIGHT ON THE OUTLOOK FOR JOBS, WAGE GROWTH?

• The BOE has said April is a key month for wage data as around 40% of salary negotiations take place then, and this year the new “Living Wage’’ will be introduced in the same month
• That, combined with the threat of Brexit, is having a dramatic impact on employer behavior, with a switch to temporary from permanent hiring, REC said this week