Rousseff Impeachment Tally, Temer Team Key for Market: Analysts
(Bloomberg) -- While 41 votes in Senate later today is the minimum needed to remove Rousseff temporarily from power, a higher tally would add to market optimism, analysts say.
- After 180 days, Senate will vote again in the definitive impeachment of President Rousseff, which would demand support of 2/3 of all senators, 54 votes
- “A higher score today could reduce the fear of a negative result for impeachment in the final vote,” Vladimir Caramaschi, chief-economist at Credit Agricole Indosuez, says in a phone interview
- “54 votes is the line in the sand that will set the market perception,” Rafael Cortez, political analyst at Tendencias says
- Scoring near the minimun of 41 votes, the impeachment could disapoint, leading Brazil assets to lose
- Market reaction may be “asymetrical”, positive in case of a higher impechment-vote count and not that bad in case of lower votes, since the impeachment is approved, Ricardo Ribeiro, analyst at MCM says
- Market assessment is that it will be difficult for Rousseff to retake the power anyway after being ousted
- Caramaschi sees the expected VP Temer announcement of eco. team, in case Rousseff exits, also key for market reaction
- BRL could reach 3.30/USD, Ibovespa may rise to 58.000 points after impeachment and if new president confirms market expectation of a pro-reform team
Alert:
HALISTER1Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)
People Dilma Rousseff (Federative Republic of Brazil)
Rafael Cortez (Tendencias Consultoria Integra)
Vladimir Caramaschi (Credit Agricole Brasil SA DTVM/Brazil)
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