HALISTER1: N.Z. Phillips Curve Is Flat, Hold OIS Receiver on RBNZ Cuts: CBA

N.Z. Phillips Curve Is Flat, Hold OIS Receiver on RBNZ Cuts: CBA

(Bloomberg) -- New Zealand’s Phillips curve is “as flat as a pancake” as with most countries, Jarrod Kerr and Adam Donaldson, CBA rates strategists, write in note today.
  • Maintains NZD Aug. overnight-index-swap receiver and continues to see “good” chance RBNZ cuts policy rate to 1.50% in current cycle from 2.25% currently
  • Also expects RBA to lower rate to 1.25%, possibly 1.00% this year, from 1.75%
  • Extends target for AUD August OIS receiver to 1.25% from 1.50% previously
  • NOTE: Phillips curve refers to inverse relationship between unemployment and inflation
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Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Adam Donaldson (Commonwealth Bank of Australia)
Jarrod Kerr (Commonwealth Bank of Australia)

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(2) *MUNICH RE SEES 2016 PROFIT OF EU2.3B, HAD SEEN EU2.3B–EU2.8B

*MUNICH RE SEES 2016 PROFIT OF EU2.3B, HAD SEEN EU2.3B–EU2.8B

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Source: BN (Bloomberg News)

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MUV2 GR (Muenchener Rueckversicherungs-Gesellschaft AG in Muenchen)

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HALISTER1: Singapore’s Central Bank to Ease FX Policy in Next 12 Months: CS

Singapore’s Central Bank to Ease FX Policy in Next 12 Months: CS

(Bloomberg) -- Credit Suisse forecasts Monetary Authority of Singapore will ease policy through downward re-centering of currency band over next 12 months, according to note.
  • More likely in April 2017 than this Oct., analysts including Michael Wan write in note today; core inflation seen averaging 0.4% in both 2016 and 2017 vs govt’s medium-term forecast of 2%
  • 2016 GDP growth forecast lowered to 1.4% from 1.7%; 2017 cut to 1.2% from 1.8%
  • Maintains USD/SGD projections at 1.3600 in 3 mos. and 1.4200 in 12 mos.; USD/SGD now down 0.04% at 1.3713
  • Expects 3-mo. Sibor to rise to 1.75% in 2016 and 2.50% in 2017, which could have some negative impact on private consumption; 3-mo. Sibor little changed at 1.00292%
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Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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MASP SP (Monetary Authority of Singapore)

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Michael Wan (Credit Suisse Group AG)

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HALISTER1: INDIA RATINGS: Anant Raj, NV Distilleries Cut; ACP Raised

INDIA RATINGS: Anant Raj, NV Distilleries Cut; ACP Raised

(Bloomberg) -- Here’s a roundup of Indian co. debt-rating changes.
  • To get this story sent to your inbox real-time, run NI INRATINGS , click on Display & Edit, then Set Alert Delivery
DOWNGRADES
  • Anant Raj
    • Long-term bank facilities cut to BBB from BBB+ at Care
    • Cites stagnancy in booking status from existing projects
  • Kasukurthi Sujatha
    • LT loan facilities cut to BBB- from BBB+ at Crisil
    • Cites delay in realization of receivables leading to overdrawals of cash credit limits
  • Leeway Logistics
    • LT bank facilities cut to BBB+ from A- at Care
    • Cites significant difference in profits in final audited numbers compared with provisional figures
  • NV Distilleries
    • LT bank facilities cut to D from BB- at Care
    • Cites ongoing delays in servicing debt obligations
UPGRADES
  • ACP Tollways
    • LT bank facilities raised to BBB from BBB- at Care
    • Says project’s provisional operational date is achievable
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
ARCP IN (Anant Raj Ltd)
0873473D IN (Leeway Logistics Ltd)
1303423D IN (NV Distilleries Ltd)

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