Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- Geneva prosecutors are widening probe into Credit Suisse Group AG and an ex-wealth manager, identifying another three former employees as suspects in a case looking into unauthorized trades on behalf of rich eastern Europeans, according to two people familiar with the investigation.

• The trio have been summoned for questioning later this month by the Geneva prosecutor’s office on suspicion of money laundering, according to the people, who asked not to be identified because the investigation is ongoing.
• The men, along with the ex-banker at the heart of the case, can’t be named because of Swiss rules covering identification of suspects in criminal cases
• Prosecutors and Credit Suisse clients are looking at records from the trading of the ex-wealth manager, who admitted to the bank last year that he carried out trades without knowledge of customers including former Georgian former prime minister Bidzina Ivanishvili
• NOTE: Credit Suisse Accused of Money Laundering by Billionaire NSN O451976KLVRZ

(Bloomberg) -- Very likely that peak in bund yields has been seen around 0.30%, BNP Paribas strategists including Eric Oynoyan write in client note.

• However, in near term, a rebound of oversold risk assets could trigger a setback in yields
• BNP recommends using any move close to 0.65% as an opportunity to re-enter EUR 10y swap receiver with medium- term target of 0.25%
• Maintains thesis that in the present ultra-low yield environment, carry becomes increasingly valuable and sought- after
• Carry is highest in sub-5-year U.S., around 5y in U.K. and in 5-10y in EUR
• Recommends waiting for a setback on the EUR 5s10s swap curve to ~50bp to receive it targeting low 30s, or a return of the EUR 5s10s30s swap fly to 5-6bp area targeting -10bp
  • Current backdrop of gradual rebound of inflation expectations and no rebound in volatility doesn’t favour an outperformance of the long end of curves
• Long German ASW via Buxl ASW; recommendation at 32bp, target 40bp
  • Investors constrained by the maturity could enter the long on the 5y bucket at 38bp and add on any move to 36bp, targeting 43/45bp by mid-July, 34bp stop

(Bloomberg) -- Bund futures contract (generic, roll-adjusted) poised to break the 163.86 Fibonacci hurdle, which would set the stage for a swift ascent toward the 165.01 area, the location of the 2-month trend-channel top, Bloomberg Technical Analyst Sejul Gokal writes.

• NOTE: Click here for today’s technical, options and positioning monitors

• RX1: Tested and and so far rejecting the 76.4% Fibonacci resistance at 163.86, with intraday pullback expected to ease on approach of daily pivot line and yday’s mid point price at 163.47/41 (see chart)
• MACD crossing both signal and zero line; the last time MACD exhibited similar cross was back in early Jan. when bund futures traded at ~157, just before a new bull phase was initiated
  • Daily View: Bullish
  • Daily Range: Current move 29 ticks vs 72 expected
  • Resistance: 163.86; 164.17; 164.60/64; 165.01
  • Current price: 163.56
  • Support: 163.47/41; 163.12; 162.67

• NOTE: For more detail on G-10 technical levels click here
• NOTE: Sejul Gokal is an FX strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice.