HALISTER1: INSIDE TAIWAN: TWD Slips; Foreigner Investors Selling: Traders

INSIDE TAIWAN: TWD Slips; Foreigner Investors Selling: Traders

(Bloomberg) -- Taiwan dollar falls 0.5% today, most since March 9, to close at 32.356 per dollar.
  • TWD’s decline partly on USD’s overnight gains, three traders say, with foreign investors selling Taiwan equities and buying USD; exporters sold USD/TWD above 32.300
  • Taiwan’s CPI rose 1.50% y/y in April after a 2.00% increase in March, according to median est. in Bloomberg survey; ests. range from 1.00% to 2.15%; April wholesale price index probably decline 4.15% y/y vs 4.94% contraction in March; both data due 8:30 am local time tomorrow
  • Taiwan unlikely to scale back FX intervention as a policy lever in addition to a rate cut, which is expected in June, despite U.S. Treasury including Taiwan on their watch list, Adarsh Sinha, FX strategist at BofAML writes in note received Tuesday
    • Both Korea and Taiwan will continue to implement measures to encourage overseas investment and less restrictive hedging regulations, which remain an acceptable way to weaken FX
  • Overseas investors sold a net of NT$13.7b ($422.37m) Taiwan stocks today
  • 1-mo. implied volatility rising 9 bps to 5.2775%; avg for past yr 6.9577%
  • Yield on 0.750% govt bonds due March 2026 edges down 1 bp at 0.8408%
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Adarsh Sinha (Merrill Lynch Asia Pacific Ltd)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: Silver Is Given a 12-Year Term for Corruption

Silver Is Given a 12-Year Term for Corruption

Alert: HALISTER1
Source: NYT (New York Times)

People
Sheldon Silver (New York State Assembly)
Andrew Cuomo (State of New York)
Bill De Blasio (City of New York NY)
Dean Skelos ((NY)Senate)
Preetinder Bharara (United States Attorney's Office For The Southern District Of New York)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER: European Banks Weary of Cost Cutting Seen Needing More (1)

European Banks Weary of Cost Cutting Seen Needing More (1)

Alert: HALISTER
Source: BN (Bloomberg News)

Tickers
GLE FP (Societe Generale SA)
BNP FP (BNP Paribas SA)
CBK GR (Commerzbank AG)
HSBA LN (HSBC Holdings PLC)
UBSG VX (UBS Group AG)

People
Christopher Wheeler (Atlantic Equities LLP)
Frederic Oudea (Societe Generale SA)
Gary Kirk (TwentyFour Asset Management LLP)
Huw Van Steenis (Morgan Stanley)
Karim Bertoni (Bellevue Asset Management AG/Switzerland)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: AUCTION PREVIEW: Curve Concession, Recent Selloff Support Bobl

AUCTION PREVIEW: Curve Concession, Recent Selloff Support Bobl

(Bloomberg) -- Germany to sell 0% 04/2021 bonds for EU4b at 11:30am CET. Bobl has offered concession on the curve, rise in yields seen as supportive, analysts say.
  • Mizuho (Antoine Bouvet)
    • Expect recent recovery in bonds to continue, should benefit the auction
    • In RV, bond has offered a good concession ahead of auction, adjusting for selloff impact; see bond has cheapened by ~1bp, much more than predecessors around their third respective taps
    • Analysis suggests 5Y rolls outperform by average of 0.5bps in the days following the tap; expect some retracement of that auction concession
  • Commerzbank (Benjamin Schroeder)
    • 5Y yields edged above -0.30% in recent weeks, before falling below this lvl yday; would be the highest yield at auction since Feb.; still room left to the -0.40% ECB depo rate
  • Unicredit (Elia Lattuga)
    • Bond trades at around -0.3%, 10bps cheaper than mid- April lows; since then, 2s5s has steepened by ~6bps, 5s10s by 10bps, 2s5s10s sits towards the rich end of 2- month range
    • Last tap was technically uncovered, sold just a few bps richer than current levels
    • In relative value, looks attractive vs 01/2020 and 07/2020 bunds
  • ING (Martin van Vliet)
    • OBL 04/2021 still trades ~2bps concession to the curve, has remained PSPP-eligible despite yesterday’s 4bp rally to -0.33%
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Antoine Bouvet (Mizuho Financial Group Inc)
Benjamin Schroeder (Commerzbank AG)
Elia Lattuga (UniCredit SpA)
Martin Van Vliet (ING Groep NV)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: AUCTION PREVIEW: Recent Cheapening Seen Benefiting OAT Supply

AUCTION PREVIEW: Recent Cheapening Seen Benefiting OAT Supply

(Bloomberg) -- France to sell 6% 10/2025s, 0.5% 05/2026s, 1.5% 05/2031 for EU7b-8b at 10:50am CET; recent cheapening following large duration supply last month makes valuations attractive, say analysts.
  • Commerzbank (Benjamin Schroeder)
    • Valuations look attractive again, following supply spree including new 20Y, 50Y OATs in mid-April; curves have started to re-flatten again after peaking last week
  • Unicredit (Elia Lattuga)
    • 10Y has cheapened ~20bps since the last tap, 15Y even more, as a result of very high duration supply over past few weeks
    • 05/26 has cheapened, looks attractive vs equivalent RAGB
    • OAT 10/2025, 05/2031 trade at relatively rich levels on the curve, cross-market has cheapened significantly to bunds over past month
  • Danske Bank (Arne Lohmann Rasmussen)
    • 10Y has lost a few bps to Germany over past two weeks following large 50Y risk that came to the market in April
    • Japanese investors favor OATs; given the positive fixed- income sentiment, bank expects healthy demand
  • ING (Martin van Vliet)
    • 10Y benchmark offers a 23bps spread over Eonia, which should ensure sufficient demand from bank treasuries
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Benjamin Schroeder (Commerzbank AG)
Arne Rasmussen (Danske Bank A/S)
Elia Lattuga (UniCredit SpA)
Martin Van Vliet (ING Groep NV)

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UUID: 7947283