EUROPE RISK TIMELINE: BOE’s New Forecasts, Greece, Spain, Brexit
(Bloomberg) -- BOE’s press conference after its rate decision and quarterly Inflation Report on May 12 will likely be dominated by discussion about what a Brexit would mean for the U.K.; any commentary on the flatness of the rate curve will also be eyed.
- Across the channel, politics is likely to dominate headlines as talks around Greece’s first bailout review continue amid ongoing doubt about the IMF’s participation, while fresh elections in Spain mean there’s potential for new tie-ups and leadership battles
- MAIN RISKS:
- While U.K. assets have been pricing out any premiums for risks related to Brexit referendum, that trend could change on opinion polls, any pickup in news flow on the migrant crisis as well as any step-up in the debate from the Vote Leave campaign, analysts say
- BOE MPC will find it increasingly difficult to avoid commenting on Brexit, Investec’s Philip Shaw says
- Discussions between Greece and creditors continue as investors weigh whether new funds will be disbursed before the country is due to repay the IMF in June, and the ECB in July
- Comments by ECB speakers will be scoured for clues on its next steps, after BOJ said it needs time to assess impact of its easing efforts and Fed left the door to rate rises ajar
- Barclays says the issue of migration could have imminent consequences for markets ahead of U.K.’s vote on EU membership in June, and before German, French elections in 2017
- Negotiations to form a govt continue in Ireland and Spain
- OPEC’s June meeting is also key with the price of oil back at levels not seen since November 2015; Russia sees no moves to freeze oil output before then
- MAY:
- Greece debt relief deal may be agreed in May, Eurasia says
- 3: Spain’s parliament will be dissolved if no govt has been formed
- 4: U.K. PM Cameron due to give MPs evidence on EU membership
- 5: U.K. local elections; London mayoral elections
- 5: U.K. April services, composite PMI
- 6: Moody’s may review Portugal rating
- 9: Euro-area finance ministers may meet to discuss Greek bailout review
- 12: BOE rate decision; quarterly Inflation Report
- 13: S&P may review Italy’s rating, Moody’s may review Ireland
- 18: U.K. April claimant count; March average weekly earnings
- 18: Fed releases minutes of April 26/27 meeting
- 19: ECB accounts
- 20: Moody’s may review France’s rating
- 23: EU May prelim. services, composite PMI
- 26-27: G-7 meets
- 27: Moody’s may review U.K.’s credit rating
- 30: German May CPI
- JUNE:
- Dijsselbloem says seeking roadmap on deposit insurance and risk-reduction efforts by this month
- Last month Italy can hold municipal elections
- 2: ECB rate decision
- 3: U.K. May services, composite PMI
- 3: Moody’s may review Finland’s rating; S&P may review Ireland
- 10: Moody’s may review Italy’s rating, Fitch may review U.K., France
- 15: U.K. May claimant count; April average weekly earnings
- Reflects new Living Wage; ~40% of wage deals take place
- 15: Fed rate decision; will watch U.K. polls closely: Kaplan
- 16: BOE rate decision, minutes
- 17: Moody’s may review Spain’s rating
- 23: EC preliminary June services, composite PMI
- 23: U.K. votes on EU membership
- 23: TLTRO 8 allotment
- 23: Brussels summit originally scheduled to start today may be pushed back
- 24: Moody’s may review Greece’s rating
- 26: Spain may hold fresh elections
- 29: German June CPI
- 30: ECB accounts
JULY
- 5: U.K. June services, composite PMI
- 13: Greece must repay EU446m in IMF loans
- 14: BOE rate decision, minutes
- 15: Fitch may review Ireland’s rating
- 20: Greece must repay ~EU2.3b in principal on bonds held by the ECB
- 20: U.K. June claimant count; March average weekly earnings
- 21: ECB rate decision
- 22: S&P may review Greece’s rating
- 22: EC preliminary July services, composite PMI
- 27: U.K. 2Q GDP
- 28: German July CPI
- 29: Fitch may review Spain’s rating
Alert:
HALISTER1Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)
Tickers 2539Z GR (European Central Bank)
People Philip Shaw (Investec PLC)
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