Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- Following are forecasts for today’s economic releases as compiled by Bloomberg News.

• Chicago PM 60; range 58 to 64.7 (31 estimates)
• In September, the index registered 65.2, the highest second reading of the year

To contact the reporters on this story: Alex Tanzi in Washington at atanzi@bloomberg.net; Vincent Del Giudice in Denver at vdelgiudice@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Alex Tanzi at atanzi@bloomberg.net Kristy Scheuble

(Bloomberg) -- “Rate cuts early in 2018 will depend critically on whether projected inflation for 2019 is at or below the 4.25% target and the respective balance of risks,” Alberto Ramos, Latin America chief economist at Goldman Sachs, writes in a report after the release of last Copom minutes.

• Signal of 50bp cut in December meeting seems quite clear; beyond that, Copom is not committing to any particular move, but leaving the door open for additional rate cuts of an unspecified magnitude (-25 or -50bp) at the February meeting
  • Data, balance of risks for growth-inflation "will determine whether the Copom sees room, if any, for additional rate cuts during 1Q2018”
• "At this juncture the conditional inflation forecasts do not give the green light to push the Selic below 7.00% without assuming some degree of inflation risk versus the target in 2019-2020,” Ramos writes in the report
  • Cyclical economic recovery seems to be broadening; given usual lags of monetary policy, any near-term monetary stimulus beyond Selic at 7% would end up impacting final demand in 2H18 and 1H19, when the economy may already be growing and further stimulus may no longer be really needed
• NOTE: BCB said this morning that it would refrain from providing investors with guidance about the future path of interest rates, keeping its options open as policy makers wind down their biggest easing of monetary policy in a decade

To contact the reporter on this story: Leonardo Lara in Sao Paulo at llara1@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Daniela Milanese at dmilanese@bloomberg.net Giulia Camillo

(Bloomberg) -- Following are forecasts for today’s economic releases as compiled by Bloomberg News.

• SPCS 20 0.4% m/m; range 0.1% to 0.5% (15 estimates)
• SPCS 20 5.93% y/y; range 5.1% to 6.3% (14 estimates)
• “Price pressures should persist as long as demand continues to outstrip supply, which seems to be the case given that the home ownership vacancy rate recently hit a 16-year low”: Bloomberg Intelligence
• In July, the index rose 5.8 percent from as year earlier

To contact the reporters on this story: Alex Tanzi in Washington at atanzi@bloomberg.net; Vincent Del Giudice in Denver at vdelgiudice@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Alex Tanzi at atanzi@bloomberg.net Kristy Scheuble

(Bloomberg) -- Canadian GDP seen rising 3.6% y/y in August after increasing 3.8% in July (forecast range +3.4% to +3.7%)

(Bloomberg) -- Following are forecasts for today’s economic releases as compiled by Bloomberg News.

• ECI 0.7% q/q; range 0.5% to 0.8% (53 estimates)
• “With the core PCE deflator running near two-year lows, analysts will look to barometers of labor cost pressures for signs of a sustainable rebound”: Bloomberg Intelligence
• In the second quarter, the index rose 0.5 percent

To contact the reporters on this story: Alex Tanzi in Washington at atanzi@bloomberg.net; Vincent Del Giudice in Denver at vdelgiudice@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Alex Tanzi at atanzi@bloomberg.net Kristy Scheuble