HALISTER: GE 1Q EPS Beats, Reaffirms Year EPS Forecast

GE 1Q EPS Beats, Reaffirms Year EPS Forecast

(Bloomberg) -- GE 1Q industrial oper and verticals EPS 21c, est. 19c (range 19c-20c)
  • Reaffirms year guidance for EPS of $1.45–$1.55
  • 8:30am Webcast Link
  • GE EARNINGS PREVIEW: NSN O5ZV9A6JTSEM
Statement NSN O616HCAIBMDC
Alert: HALISTER
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
GE US (General Electric Co)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: Republicans Accuse Obama Administration of Back Door in Iran Sanctions Fight

Republicans Accuse Obama Administration of Back Door in Iran Sanctions Fight

Alert: HALISTER1
Source: WPT (Washington Post)

Tickers
1025594D US (House Committee on Foreign Affairs)

People
Barack Obama (United States of America)
Benjamin Cardin (United States Senate)
Edward Royce (United States House of Representatives)
John Kerry (United States Department of State)
John Kirby (United States Bureau of Public Affairs)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: Bund Yields Unlikley to Rise Much Above 0.30%: BNP Paribas

Bund Yields Unlikley to Rise Much Above 0.30%: BNP Paribas

(Bloomberg) -- Closed outright EUR 10y swap receiver in light of the current correction in bunds, waiting for better levels to re-enter, BNP Paribas strategists including Eric Oynoyan write in client note.
  • Heavy redemptions and coupon payments could slow the pace of the correction
  • Moreover, current low premium on bunds suggests the 10y yield is unlikely to rise much above 0.30%
  • Next week, FOMC, BOJ, month-end index extensions, end of the month with most-negative net EGB supply and the DBRS Portugal rating update pose near-term risks to bond markets, but will not provoke a trend reversal in bonds
  • Overall, expect outstanding recommendations to weather a potential selloff
    • 2s5s USD steepener vs EUR flattener should offer protection against a less-dovish Fed
    • USD 3y forward 3s15s steepener and EUR curve trades – OAT 5s15s and BTP 10s30s flatteners – are only mildly bullish
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
BNP FP (BNP Paribas SA)

People
Eric Oynoyan (BNP Paribas SA)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: Pay EUR 3s5s7s IRS, 10Y Cash Breakevens Attractive: Commerzbank

Pay EUR 3s5s7s IRS, 10Y Cash Breakevens Attractive: Commerzbank

(Bloomberg) -- EUR 3s5s7s IRS fly currently trading about 1.3 sigma below fair value, Commerzbank strategists including Markus Koch write in client note.
  • Current fly spreads in EUR stretched across the IRS curve
  • Intermediate EUR IRS tenors stuck in a sideways trend with prospects for a major re-pricing remote
  • Recommend paying 5y EUR IRS (100%) vs PCA-weighted receiving 3y (58%) and 7y (43%)
    • Deploy PCA-weighting scheme to largely immunise EUR 3s5s7s fly against directional and curve exposure
  • Hold tactical longs in HICP breakevens but shift focus to longer-dated Bund breakevens
    • For example, 10y DBRei real yield carry will be +13bp on a 3-mo. horizon
    • While inflation markets are unlikely to follow Draghi’s call for “patience”, strong positive carry and prospects of Fed-induced weakening of EUR limit the downside
  • Look to increase duration exposure again at 10y Bund yields above 0.25%
  • EUR curve should stay highly directional, an additional steepening impetus should come from the short end where money-market forwards are discounting virtually nothing for June and the small drift lower in Eonia forwards until Sept. could also be realised without another ECB depo cut
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Markus Koch (Commerzbank AG)

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UUID: 7947283