INSIDE INDONESIA: Rupiah Firms Ahead of Trade Balance, Exports
(Bloomberg) -- Rupiah gains 0.1% to 13,170 ahead of March trade data. Currency is still set for its first weekly decline in 3 weeks.
- Trade balance is expected to fall to $465m from $1.136b in Feb. as exports are forecast at -14.00% y/y vs -7.18% y/y in Feb.; imports estimated at -11.90% y/y vs -11.71% in Feb.
- USD/IDR 1-mo NDFs may breach 50-DMA resistance even if Indonesia’s March trade data matches expectations as the data may highlight ongoing weakness in global trade, spurring risk-off sentiment, Bloomberg strategist David Finnerty writes
- Indonesia 1Q GDP growth seen at 5.1%-5.2%, Investor Daily reports, citing minister for economic affairs Nasution
- Five-year credit-protection costs for Indonesia rose yesterday for first time in a week, climbing 1 bp to 197 bps, according to CMA data
- If the tax amnesty bill debated in parliament this week is passed, it could be a catalyst for repatriation inflows in the following three months, BNP Paribas write in note yesterday
- Bill passage will give Bank Indonesia the opportunity to rebuild FX reserves and support IDR
- USD/IDR - May extend gains after key trend-reversal day
- 1st resistance: 13,237, April 6 high; 2nd resistance: 13,245, March 31 low; 3rd resistance: 13,296, 50-DMA
- 1st support: 13,160, April 13 high; 2nd support: 13,091, April 13 low; 3rd support: 13,033, March 18 low;
- Foreign investors were net buyers of 2.7t rupiah ($204.9m) in Indonesia’s bonds on April 12, according to finance ministry data; they were net sellers of $15.1m in local equities yesterday, according to exchange data
- 10-year govt bond yields steady at 7.467%
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