HALISTER1: INSIDE PHILIPPINES: Peso Up Even as Exports Accelerate Decline

INSIDE PHILIPPINES: Peso Up Even as Exports Accelerate Decline

(Bloomberg) -- Peso advances for a second day despite exports falling 4.5% y/y in Feb., exceeding the median est. of a 3.2% decline in Bloomberg survey.
  • Competition chief favors easing policy restricting rice imports
  • BSP seeks stiffer penalties for errant banks in law against money laundering, Deputy Governor Espenilla says
    • Rizal Bank to return portion of heist money if found liable, bank President Lorenzo Tan says
  • Vehicle sales rose 17% y/y last month, industry group says
  • Peso gains 0.2% to 46.015 per dollar at close, according to bankers’ association data
  • Peso’s one-month forwards steady at 46.13 per dollar
  • ING sees 1Q GDP growth of 6.5% on the back of positive fiscal expenditure, election spending and rising remittances on a peso basis, according to April 11 note; says peso could test stronger end of 45.90-46.50 trading range vs dollar this week
  • International investors bought net $6.3m of local equities yesterday, first inflow in six days: exchange data
  • Yield on 8% govt bonds due July 2031 rises 3 bps to 3.9250%, according to Tradition pricing
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Lorenzo Tan (RCBC Savings Bank Inc)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: Value in EUR Long-End Mid-Curve Payers on Higher Rates Hedge: SG

Value in EUR Long-End Mid-Curve Payers on Higher Rates Hedge: SG

(Bloomberg) -- See value in EUR mid-curve bear steepeners amid increasing interest in long-term hedges against a scenario of EUR rates eventually moving higher, Societe Generale strategist Adam Kurpeil writes in client note.
  • Buy 1y15y10y payer spread ATMF/+xbp, sell 1y2y3y ATMF payers, PV01-weighted, solve x for zero-cost (Indicative x = 60bps)
    • Attractive rolldown at +10bps/6-mo.
  • Rates rolldown of vanilla payers significantly deteriorates their breakevens, contrary to mid-curve payers in the 15y10y area
  • Risk of unlimited losses at expiry if the EUR 2y3y-15y10y curve bear-flattens, or if 2y3y rate increases in a year’s time by more than 60bps above its 1y forward
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Adam Kurpiel (Societe Generale SA)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: EU CREDIT DAILY: Alcoa Kicks Off 1Q; Nomura Cuts, Italy Fund

EU CREDIT DAILY: Alcoa Kicks Off 1Q; Nomura Cuts, Italy Fund

(Bloomberg) -- Risk-asset sentiment remains optimistic with cash corporate bonds seeing firm price action, equity markets being buoyant and haven flows in European govt bonds reversing, Bloomberg strategist Simon Ballard writes.
  • Still, Alcoa’s 1Q16 earnings overnight painted a cautious macro outlook as profits slumped 92% and company cut its 2016 global aerospace sales growth outlook
  • Lingering global macro uncertainty continues to support argument for bottom-up approach to investment strategy despite optimism over China economic data; investor caution reflected in iTraxx indices’ weakness vs underpinned cash bond market
    • iTraxx Xover +28bps mtd, EUR HY cash bond index -17bps mtd
  • Risk Appetite model registers drop in volatility vs 2 weeks ago, but still wide of year ago level
  • CDX IG currently +0.8bps at 81.22 in overnight session; iTraxx Asia Ex Japan IG is currently -1.2bps at 144.90
NEWS
  • Corporate News
  • Alcoa Lowers Forecasts as Demand Slows From Jets to Metals
  • Tesco to Sell 8.6% Equity Stake in Lazada for $129m
  • Asos 1H Retail Gross Margin Beats, On Track to Achieve Outlook
  • GTH Finance to Sell $1b HY Bond Guaranteed by VimpelCom: Moody’s
  • Financial News
  • Italy Forms $5.7 Billion Fund to End Doubts About Banking System
  • Nomura Said Planning to Shut Down European Equity Business
  • Credit Rating News
  • Fitch: China Coal Company’s Bond Default Underlines Sector Risks
  • S&P: Rtg Otlk On Japan’s Fast Retailing To Stable; Rtg Affrmd
  • Other News
  • Renzi Draws His Sword as Bad Loans Hold Back Italian Revolution
  • Australia Joins U.S. Bonds in Global Race to Bottom for Yields
  • Stock Market Shows Draghi Can’t Count on Europe CEOs for Growth
ANALYST VIEWS
  • The week has got off to a bright if rather unexciting start. Stocks generally up, oil in a narrow range and corporate bond spreads unchanged. What’s not to like? creditmarketdaily.com
NEW ISSUES
  • Air Liquide EU300m 6Y bonds atni bank MS +30
  • BMW Finance EU750m 4Y bonds at MS +28, EU750m 8Y bonds at MS +43
  • Eurogrid EU750m 12Y bonds at MS +83
  • InterXion Holding tapped INXN 6% 7/2020 by EU150m at 104.50 (OBL +528)
  • DNB Boligkreditt EU1.5b 7Y covered bonds at MS +16
  • Muenchener Hypo EU500m 10Y covered bonds at MS -1
  • European IG credit pipeline here and HY credit pipeline here
  • Issuers exposed to S-T rollover and interest-rate reset risk here
  • NOTE: Simon Ballard is a credit strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice.
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER: Shell to Chevron Awaiting Demand From LNG Market in ‘Pause Mode’

Shell to Chevron Awaiting Demand From LNG Market in ‘Pause Mode’

Alert: HALISTER
Source: BN (Bloomberg News)

Tickers
RDSA LN (Royal Dutch Shell PLC)
CVX US (Chevron Corp)
WPL AU (Woodside Petroleum Ltd)

People
Ben Beurden (Royal Dutch Shell PLC)
Colin Barnett (State of Western Australia)
John Watson (Chevron Corp)
Peter Coleman (Woodside Petroleum Ltd)

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UUID: 7947283