Halister News

Economic Release Details: {USHBMIDX Index ECOD} --RANDY WOODS

(Bloomberg) -- Following are forecasts for today’s economic releases as compiled by Bloomberg News.

• NAHB 64; range 62 to 66 (33 estimates)
  • “Housing fundamentals point to continued modest growth in the sector”: Bloomberg Intelligence
  • In July, the index declined to 64, the lowest since November

To contact the reporters on this story: Alex Tanzi in Washington at atanzi@bloomberg.net; Vincent Del Giudice in Denver at vdelgiudice@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Alex Tanzi at atanzi@bloomberg.net Kristy Scheuble

(Bloomberg) -- Asset managers are long in all contracts, which should be bearish for the Treasury futures roll, while short in UXY may be bullish, SocGen strategists Shakeeb Hulikatti, Subadra Rajappa and Bruno Braizinha said in Aug. 14 note. 

• CTDs change from September to December for all contracts except US and WN, which suggests market positioning “will be the major influence”
• “Slightly” bearish TUU7/TUZ7; longs should roll early
  • Asset managers have added more than 31k contracts to net longs since last roll, currently 19% of open interest vs 16% in May
  • Any hawkish repricing of Fed hike expectations should steepen the repo curve, which “will likely cheapen the roll”
• “Slightly” bearish FVU7/FVZ7; longs should roll early
  • Asset managers have cut FV net longs, though positioning remains elevated, which will likely be bearish
  • FVU7 may cheapen “a little more” going into delivery month as current CTD drops from subsequent contract delivery basket
• Neutral to “slightly” bearish TYU7/TYZ7
  • Asset managers have cut net longs by more than 148k since last roll and leveraged accounts have cut shorts by ~53k, which may put “slight cheapening pressure” on the calendar roll during peak activity
  • TYZ7 CTD trading slightly cheaply on the spline vs TYU7 CTD, which could be bearish to the TY roll “on the margin”
• Bullish UXYU7/UXYZ7; longs should roll late
  • In seventh roll cycle for the UXY contract, there may be an incentive for investors to switch from TY and US to UXY since it’s closer to the natural 10yr point on the curve
  • Asset managers have increased shorts to 16% of open interest from 13% since last roll, which should exert “slight widening pressure”
• Neutral to “slightly” bearish USU7/USZ7
  • Front and back contracts have same CTDs; over past 15 rolls, US contracts have had same CTDs on 13 occasions and the calendar has remained the same or widened, “though only marginally”
  • Asset managers have cut longs by 47k since last roll, which should still “exert slight tightening pressure during peak roll activity”
• Bearish WNU7/WNZ7; longs should roll early
  • Asset managers continue adding to net long positions, 52% of open interest vs 51% previous roll; should put downward pressure on the roll leading into peak activity

To contact the reporter on this story: Alexandra Harris in New York at aharris48@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Boris Korby at bkorby1@bloomberg.net Vivien Lou Chen

(Bloomberg) -- Following are forecasts for today’s economic releases as compiled by Bloomberg News.

• Retail sales 0.3% m/m; range -0.1% to 1% (76 estimates)
• Retail ex-autos 0.3% m/m; range 0.1% to 1% (72 estimates)
• Retail ex- auto/gas 0.4% m/m; range 0.2% to 0.6% (21 estimates)
• Retail control 0.4% m/m; range 0.2% to 0.6% (29 estimates)
• “A bounce seems overdue, especially since fundamentals in the household sector have remained generally favorable. In particular, consumer confidence remains high, supported by ongoing strength in the labor market”: NatWest Markets
• Retail sales dropped in May and June, the first back-to-back decline since August; sales weakened at department stores, sporting goods outlets and restaurants
• Empire 10; range 5 to 20 (43 estimates)
• Import prices 0.1% m/m; range -0.2% to 0.4% (33 estimates)
• Import prices ex petro 0.1% m/m; range 0% to 0.1% (5 estimates)
• Import Prices 1.5% y/y; range 1.3% to 1.8% (9 estimates)
• Export Prices 0.2% m/m; range 0.2% to 0.3% (6 estimates)
• “If the soft patch in overall inflation proves to be more durable than Fed officials anticipate, this will present significant downside risk to the trajectory of the fed funds rate”: Bloomberg Intelligence ** The import price index fell in May and June

To contact the reporters on this story: Alex Tanzi in Washington at atanzi@bloomberg.net ; Vincent Del Giudice in Denver at vdelgiudice@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Alex Tanzi at atanzi@bloomberg.net Kristy Scheuble