HALISTER1: INSIDE ASIA: Yen Highest Since 2014, Spurns Intervention Warning

INSIDE ASIA: Yen Highest Since 2014, Spurns Intervention Warning

(Bloomberg) -- Yen shrugs off more FX intervention warnings from Japanese officials to reach strongest since Oct. 2014 against the dollar, returning to levels before BOJ’s QQE.
  • Malaysia’s ringgit and Indonesia’s rupiah lead Asian currencies higher as Bloomberg Dollar Index slips for second day after Fed minutes show policy makers aren’t rushing to raise rates
  • Yen gains for fifth day against dollar; hit 109.16
    • There have been one-sided moves in FX market; will take necessary action if needed on FX, Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga says
    • Japanese investors were net sellers of 1,555.1b yen ($14.2b) in foreign bonds during week ended April 1, largest amount since period ended June 12, 2015
    • BOJ will check risks, add stimulus if needed: Governor Kuroda
    • Recent yen strength resulted in USD/JPY unwinding all gains that emanated from additional QQE in Oct. 2014; see chart
  • China raises reference rate for first time this week
    • Data today will show foreign reserves dropped to $3.20t in March, lowest since December 2011 and from $3.23t in February, according to Bloomberg survey
  • U.S. Treasuries little changed, with yield on 10-year bonds at 1.753% in Asian trading after climbing 4bps yday
    • U.S. initial jobless claims due today; est. 270,000 for week ended April 2 vs 276,000 prior week: Bloomberg survey
  • Aussie advances for second day against dollar before Australia’s March foreign reserves data due
    • RBA Assistant Governor Kent said late yesterday it’s still too early to gauge labor market’s strength; weaker employment growth was expected following strength in Oct. and Nov.
    • Performance of Construction Index fell to 45.2 in March, lowest since February 2015
  • Won little changed; rate cuts in South Korea have supported consumption through the “wealth effect” of boosting property prices, easing debt burdens and increasing future income: BOK board member Ha wrote in a paper for the Korean Economic Association last month
    • Economy back on recovery track: Finance Ministry’s Lee
  • Rupiah snaps three-day drop; Indonesia plans to raise non- taxable personal income by 50%, Investor Daily Indonesia reports, citing Finance Minister Brodjonegoro
  • Peso gains; Philippines government expenditure will support economy, which is still expected to grow as much as 7.8% this year: Economic Planning Secretary Esguerra
    • January budget balance data due later; Dec. budget showed a deficit of 75.1b pesos ($1.6b)
  • Taiwan’s dollar snaps two-day drop; March CPI rose 2.00% vs 2.41% in February, est. 1.4%
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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HALISTER1: Philippines Must Raise Anti-Laundering Fines Vs Erring Banks

Philippines Must Raise Anti-Laundering Fines Vs Erring Banks

(Bloomberg) -- There should be greater administrative sanctions against banks caught violating anti-money laundering law, Senator Teofisto Guingona tells Bloomberg TV Philippines.
  • Banks get fined measly 500,000 pesos per violation now, which is not enough deterrent
  • “When they’re hurt because of the penalty, they’ll say ‘Hey, let’s not do this again. It’s too painful. Let’s make sure that this never happens again’,” Guingona says
  • Next congress must also plug law’s loopholes by including casinos among those monitored for dirty money
  • NOTE: Philippines Seeks Portions of Bangladesh Heist Cash From Casinos Link
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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HALISTER1: BOJ ‘Shock and Awe’ Stimulus Is a Risk at April Meeting: Redward

BOJ ‘Shock and Awe’ Stimulus Is a Risk at April Meeting: Redward

(Bloomberg) -- BOJ may increase monetary base to JPY100t, accelerate ETF purchases and lower interest rates by 10 bps after governor Kuroda said Japan is ready to ease without hesitation, Peter Redward, principal at Redward Associates, says in an interview.
  • Any USD/JPY boost may only provide speculators with a better level to sell dollars
    • Non-commercial positioning on CFTC as a percentage of total open interest has surged to 27%; USD/JPY was below 80.00 the last time positioning was as bullish, says Redward; click here for a chart
  • Yen strength driven by lower energy prices since mid-2014, Japan’s current account swing into surplus, a downward re- assessment of U.S. monetary policy and PM Abe’s reflationary policies
  • USD/JPY down 0.3% to 109.46; declining for fifth day
  • BOJ meeting starts on April 27
  • NOTE: BOJ will check risks, add stimulus if needed: Kuroda
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Peter Redward (Redward Associates Ltd)

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HALISTER1: TAIWAN PREVIEW: Price Gains Seen Slowing After February’s Spike

TAIWAN PREVIEW: Price Gains Seen Slowing After February’s Spike

(Bloomberg) -- Taiwan’s CPI seen rising at slower pace for first time in three months in March, according to economists’ forecasts.
  • Consumer prices climbed 1.40% y/y following 2.40% increase in Feb., median est. in Bloomberg survey shows; ests. range from 0.20% to 2.10%; data due at 8:30am local time
  • Feb. CPI median est. was +0.80%, data released on March 8 showed; Taiwan dollar fell 0.2% to 33.062 vs U.S. dollar that day
  • Surge in prices in Feb. was fastest pace in three years as seasonal and weather factors impacted, according to statistics bureau, which maintained its 2016 forecast of 0.69% that was set in Feb.
  • Taiwan dollar advanced 3.8% in March, biggest monthly gain since Feb. 2008; island’s currency fell 0.2% to 32.442 per U.S. dollar at close yesterday
  • Taiwan’s central bank cut policy rate for third straight meeting last month, lowering by 12.5 bps to 1.50%
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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