Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- Trade balance in goods and services seen at -$46.2b in Feb. vs Jan.’s -$45.7b (forecast range -$41.6b to -$48.3b)

(Bloomberg) -- “The fact that over the last couple weeks yields have gone from a peak of 2.00% steadily to the current levels, accompanied by a steady shift of stochastics well into overbought territory, points to a material shift in the near-term outlook for both the economy and monetary policy,” CRT strategist David Ader says in note.

• “Continuation of the flattening price action that has been underway in recent sessions follows intuitively with the pullback in commodities –- specifically crude”
• Other observations from strategist morning notes:
• BMO (Aaron Kohli): “Earnings season is likely to further cloud the picture for rates with the risk that lackluster earnings could push stocks down and emphasize the risk-off tone for markets while dragging rates lower despite the dovish tones from every single central bank in the world”
• FTN (Jim Vogel): “Because stocks are just paring recent gains, investment grade spreads remain near 6-month lows,” and “that should allow less volatile names to continue to take advantage of the bull flattening curve”
• Marty Mitchell (independent): “This squeeze to lower yields is the pain trade for the chorus of participants who have been vociferously calling for higher rates,” as “the market is always right, and it is telling us that global economic and financial conditions are not all that healthy”
• Seaport Global (Tom di Galoma): “Still favor 5/30yrs flattening exposure in the US and continue to look to buy dips in the 10yr notes due to a increased need for duration globally mainly due to a continued sell-off in crude and equities”

(Bloomberg) -- Aldesa’s 7.25% April 2021 EUR bonds are among “top trades for yield-hungry investors,” Arun Kumar, analyst at JPMorgan, writes in client note.

• Aldesa bonds yield ~13%, data compiled by Bloomberg show; JPM target yield 10%
  • Cites co.’s ability to weather sector woes
  • Preliminary 2015 Ebitda of EU49m results in 1.2x leverage vs sector comparable of 3.4x
• Other top trades include:
  • Constellium 7% Dec. 2023 EUR bonds; yield ~10.9%, JPM target 9%
  • Casino 4.87% perpetual EUR hybrids; current Z-spread 703bps the JPM note says, target Z+550bps

(Bloomberg) -- Unit tasked with gathering information relevant to Panama Papers, according to statement.

• Part of ongoing Turin money-laundering probe dating back to 2015
• 2015 probe covered “numerous” Panama companies linked to Mossack & Fonseca firm

(Bloomberg) -- Net sales $30.2b, est. $30.7b

• Sees yr adj. EPS $4.35-$4.55, saw $4.30-$4.55

Link to Statement:Link