HALISTER1: U.S. ECO PREVIEW: Employment Report Due in 5 Minutes

U.S. ECO PREVIEW: Employment Report Due in 5 Minutes

(Bloomberg) -- Non-farm payrolls seen at +205k in March vs +242k in Feb. (forecast range +100k to +250k); includes private and public-sector workers.
  • Unemployment rate seen unchanged at 4.9% (forecast range 4.8% to 5%); tracks number of unemployed as percentage of labor force
  • Average hourly earnings est. to rise 0.2% m/m in March after falling 0.1% in Feb. (forecast range +0.1% to +0.5%)
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: Favor GBP Steepeners, Selling the Pound Ahead of Brexit Vote: TD

Favor GBP Steepeners, Selling the Pound Ahead of Brexit Vote: TD

(Bloomberg) -- Favor steepeners in 10s30s GBP swap spread curve and Dec16/Dec17 short sterling and selling sterling versus dollar to 1.35 ahead of U.K. referendum on EU membership June 23, analysts at TD Securities led by Richard Kelly write in client note.
  • Expect result to be much less decisive than in 1975 referendum where 67.2% voted to stay a member, with 65% turnout
  • The May 5 local elections could prove pivotal catalyst in shifting odds as results may reflect greater turnout from those supporting the leave campaign
    • Scottish referendum shows many undecideds make not make up minds until final week before vote
  • If U.K. votes to leave:
    • Would expect BOE to ease policy, even as the fall in sterling would be inflationary; will likely wait and cut by 50bps in August as rate-setters would want to weigh the economic impact
    • Would follow a rate cut with EU100b to EU200b of QE, depending on how significantly uncertainty impacts households
  • In interim period, BOE’s response is less clear, although will address any liquidity shortages in bank funding, sterling or dollar swaps with other G-7 banks
  • GBP may fall as much as 20% vs USD and 10% vs euro, with a fall of 7%-10% in the day or two after the vote
  • Short-sterling would likely price out any rate rises for at least 5 years and could leave curve negatively sloped until BOE’s view on negative rates is made clear
  • Gilts will continue pre-vote outperformance vs USTs; although flight to safety of bunds and ECB QE complicates things
  • If votes to stay:
    • BOE may lift rates in November, although economic uncertainty in run-up to polling day increases chance of later move
  • Markets would immediately re-price the rate path, bringing forward first rate increase and pricing higher pace of rises; Dec16/Dec 17 short sterling should steepen
  • How far sterling moves will depend on positioning ahead of vote as the 1.5% rally in GBP after the Scottish referendum and the 4% rise after the May 2015 general election show
    • The long-term consequence of “remain” on the pound should be negligible
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Richard Kelly (Toronto-Dominion Bank/The)

Topics
Negative Interest Rate Policy

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: Moody’s Sees Limited Effect From Any Delay in Russian Eurobond

Moody’s Sees Limited Effect From Any Delay in Russian Eurobond

(Bloomberg) -- Russia’s planned $3b Eurobond sale represents ~6% of Moody’s projected 3.1 trillion-ruble federal budget deficit for 2016, Kristin Lindow, senior VP at Moody’s Investors Service, says by e-mail.
  • Russian officials have said that most of financing this yr will come from domestic market
  • If conditions domestically prove to be unexpectedly challenging, govt can tap into reserve fund
  • “While it’s not yet certain that Russia’s plan to issue Eurobonds will ultimately be stymied as a consequence of sanctions-related considerations among U.S. and European banks and investors, the amount planned to be raised by this route was relatively small at $3 billion.”
  • NOTE: Banks Ask Russia to Guarantee Eurobond From Sanctions: RBC
  • NOTE: Russia Said to Face Eurobond Setback as Many Banks Shun Deal
  • NOTE: Russia Loses Buyside Support for Eurobond After Banks Balk
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Kristin Lindow (Moody's Investors Service Inc)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER: Starwood’s China Suitor Quits Party as Quickly as He Crashed It

Starwood’s China Suitor Quits Party as Quickly as He Crashed It

Alert: HALISTER
Source: BN (Bloomberg News)

Tickers
605135Z US (JC Flowers & Co LLC)
HOT US (Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc)
1083236D CH (Anbang Insurance Group Co Ltd)
MAR US (Marriott International Inc/MD)
0895278D HK (Primavera Capital Ltd)

People
Arne Sorenson (Marriott International Inc/MD)
Bruce Duncan (First Industrial Realty Trust Inc)
Carrie Bloom (Sard Verbinnen & Co)
Deng Xiaoping (People's Republic of China)
James Corl (Siguler Guff & Co LLC)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER: JPMorgan $1.2 Billion Wealth Team Exits With Silicon Valley Help

JPMorgan $1.2 Billion Wealth Team Exits With Silicon Valley Help

Alert: HALISTER
Source: BN (Bloomberg News)

Tickers
JPM US (JPMorgan Chase & Co)
3333606Z US (Palantir Technologies Inc)

People
Carlos Dominguez Gil
Tarek El Gammal-Ortiz (JPMorgan Chase Bank)

Topics
Who's News - People

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UUID: 7947283